What we learned from the weekend: 25th, 26th & 27th October…

OK. Now we are National Hunt rolling!

Cheltenham Showcase meeting ✅

Aintree Old Roan Chase meeting ✅

Both firmly in the form book and it’s pretty much non-stop jumping action from now until April time! 

Love. It.

This weekend coming brings action from Ascot, Wetherby and Down Royal (all three meetings covered in the NTF Members Area), with the Charlie Hall Chase looking particularly mouth-watering.

The five day decs include…

Black Corton

Definitly Red

Elegant Escape

Le Bague Au Roi

Top Ville Ben

Vinndication

Could be a red-hot renewal if they all turn up (🤞🤞🤞).

That’s all to come though and as always it’s prudent that we deal with the action that’s just entered the form book…

What we learned from the weekend: 25th, 26th & 27th October…

1. Ramses De Teillee continued his love affair with the mud…

Give the 7yo Soft or Heavy ground in the October to January period and he’ll run his race, simple as that.

His form under those conditions is an impressive…

1211212 (4/7, 3p – all 4 career wins)

…he just loves getting his feet wet in the winter time!

The Becher Chase and/or a second tilt at the Welsh National (runner-up last year) look to be the early season targets. 

Should he go for the Welsh National, and providing he has another spin somewhere between now and then, he’s likely to pass all my race trends for the Xmas period slog. They’ll just have to hope they don’t bump into another Elegant Escape this time round!

Also catching my eye, with regards to Ramses De Teillee’s victory at Cheltenham, was the record of the Pipe/Scudamore partnership under the following conditions…

Pipe/Scudamore | Cheltenham Non-Handicap Novice Hurdles | October – January | SP 5/1 or less

…where they are now a tasty…

7/10 | 70% S/R | +£14.00 BFLSP

A hard partnership to stop under such circumstances.

Ramses De Teillee is a horse I’ve always liked (been mentioned a few times on this here blog) and he looks set for another season of progress, especially when the mud is flying.

Keep the galloping grey on-side when it’s wet underfoot…

2. Dan Skelton’s hurdlers continue to do the business off a wind-op…

It’s always worth looking out for a Dan Skelton Hurdler running off a first-time wind-op, especially those that start near the head of the market.

Check out the following…

Dan Skelton | First run off a wind-op | Hurdles | Top 2 in the market

…which returns…

21/40 | 53% S/R | +£29.09 – W&P 31/40 | 78% S/R

When they can breathe they can win! Skelton clearly likes to recoup the wind-op fee as soon as possible as well.

If you can catch them before they make their way to the front two in the market (not easy, obviously, you may need a crystal ball!) then the early price profits (evening before) are an even juicier +£41.57 LSP.

The latest Skelton inmate to take advantage of the above angle was I’D BETTER GO NOW, who finished strongly in the 2m5.5f Handicap Hurdle at Wincanton on Sunday.

For the record the overall stats for Skelton runners on their second start off a wind-op are only average (16% S/R – 23% below expectation) although they improve if starting in the top two in the market (28% S/R – 18% below expectation) and improve again when it’s one that won last time out (37% S/R – 13% below expectation).

None of those ‘second run off a wind-op’ stats come close to the ‘first run off a wind-op’ angle posted above, however, and that’s where I’d prefer to be concentrating my Dan Skelton wind-op focus. 

Keep an eye open for those first time Wind-opers from the Skelton yard…

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3. Fergal O’Brien can get one fit and ready off a lengthy break…

You don’t need me to tell you that the Fergal O’Brien yard are absolutely bouncing at present (7 winners from last 14 + 3 other placed runners) and it’s safe to say the move to a new yard has had a positive impact!!

I actually highlighted a couple of O’Brien angles in the Weekend Notes yesterday but perhaps the most interesting is the following…

Fergal O’Brien | DSLR 301+ |Gelding | race worth less than 10k

…which now sits at…

15/66 | 23% S/R | +£106.66 BFLSP – W&P 28/66 | 42% S/R

49% above expectation

The latest runner to boost those stats was PETITE POWER, who gunned it up the Cheltenham hill to land the Amateur Riders Handicap Chase on Friday.

He wasn’t the easiest to make a strong case for pre-race…

A 10yo that hadn’t run for 516 days, had only won 2 of its previous 21 starts and been beaten in all 11 of its starts above Class 4 level…

…but none of that mattered as O’Brien had worked his magic and got the horse bouncing fit and ready to fire off the lengthy absence.

Look out for those Fergal O’Brien lengthy absence returners…

Ben (NTF)

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*Stats have been sourced from the excellent Proform Professional database