Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes: 9th – 11th August
Back to the Handicap Sleeper notes grind… after a couple weeks break from them, whilst I concentrated on all things Glorious Goodwood…
Great to hear plenty of you have been making use of these notes in the past few weeks, with a number of the highlighted horses winning or placing since being flagged up in the Handicap Sleeper posts…
Also great to hear some of you have taken the method and found your own Handicap Sleepers… superb stuff 🤩 Love it 👍
Here’s what caught my eye last weekend…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 9th – 11th August
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📅 Friday 9th August
⭕ 230 Brighton – 5.5f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 1st – SECRET HANDSHEIKH
Was seriously well handicapped on plenty of his previous form and he also had his Prime Conditions to attack here, conditions he took full advantage of under a smart and forceful ride from William Carson… he won this off OR 54, which was 10lbs below his last winning mark and 26lb below his highest winning Handicap mark, and he’s worth keeping in mind for a similar opening in the coming weeks… his Prime Conditions are… OR <86 | Good+ (& AW) | C4 or less | Fields of <8 = 9/20, 2p – all 9 career wins… 6 of his 9 wins have come in July-Sept…
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⭕ 435 Brighton – 6f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 1st – BEAR TO DREAM
The mare won this off OR 51, which was 5lbs below her peak wining mark, and she will still hopefully have a bit to work with when her revised mark is announced for this win… this also took her record in C6 races at Brighton to 3/8, 4p and she’s always a danger at her favourite track when she meets with PC… her PC being… OR 56 or less | LH tracks | C6 | fields of 10 or less = 4/13, 7p – all 4 career wins…
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⭕ 350 Musselburgh – 7f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 3rd – ABDUCTION
This 6yo is on a winnable mark right now but I’m surprised he started as short as 4-1 as he’s 0/28 on RH or Straight tracks and all his wins have come on LH tracks… he posted a solid effort nonetheless and he’s worth keeping on the radar for going back the other way round and meeting with his PC… OR 87 or less | LH tracks over 6f-7.5f | G/S or quicker (or AW) | NO Headgear | Race worth <13k = 11111358121 (7/11, 1p – all 7 career wins)…
🏇 5th – UGO GREGORY
They went too hard off the front end with the 8yo here and it was always unlikely he was going to have anything left to fight out a finish… the race was likely a shade above his class level anyway as he’s now 0/7, 1p in races worth 10k+ and ultimately, he’s much happier in calmer waters than this… he’s handicapped to be winning just now and I half suspect they may have been using this outing to get him tuned up for another target (had he been ready to fire he wouldn’t have been starting at 33/1…T Easterby flat Musselburgh runners at 16/1+ are 4/137 | 3% S/R & his runners at 20/1+ are 1/79 | 1% S/R) and he’s worth looking out for in the coming weeks under his PC… OR <81 | C4 or less Hcps (worth <9k) | 6f-7.5f on flat or slightly undulations tracks | June-Oct | Good or softer = 10/31, 9p – all 10 career wins…
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⭕ 340 Thirsk – 5f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 5th – ALBEGONE
The quick ground would have been against him here as he’s now 0/15 on Good to Firm, so easy to forgive his 3.8L 5th of 7 in this… he ran here off OR 68, which is his last and highest winning mark, so he’s handicapped to be winning at present (he’s also placed off as high as OR 71) and he’s worth looking out for under his PC… OR 68 or less | Straight 5f Hcps | C4 or less | fields of 10 or less | NOT Good to Firm = 7/15, 3p – all 7 career wins… when David Allan is riding him under his PC the form line becomes… 211151113 (6/9, 2p)…
📅 Saturday 10th August
⭕ 135 Ascot – 5f Class 2 Handicap
🏇 3rd – DREAM COMPOSER
Has been holding his form well for most of this season and his run in the Stewards Cup LTO (24th of 25) is easy to overlook as he was drawn in the middle third, away from any pace horses… this was more like it from the 6yo and he’s worth keeping on the radar whilst he remains on a winnable mark, with his PC being… OR 96 or less | Turf Hcps | G/S or quicker | DSLR 20 or less = 8/17, 6p – all 8 turf wins…
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⭕ 210 Ascot – 2m Class 2 Handicap
🏇 4th – SPIRIT MIXER
Been a long time since he won but there have been signs of life from him recently and this was another solid effort, despite never really looking like he was going to get there… I have PC for him as… 1m4f-2m Hcps | May-Sept | OR 90 or less = 5/9, 2p – all 5 career wins… although he is yet to win in 10 starts over 2m+ and I’m maybe inclined to tweak his PC to… 1m4f-1m6f Hcps | May-Sept | OR 90 or less = 5/8, 2p – all 5 career wins… for all he did finish a 0.5L 2nd behind Trueshan in the 2022 Northumberland Plate over 2m0.5f, which is hardly the performance of a non-stayer… so I’m open, to a certain extent, on the trip angle for him…
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⭕ 347 Redcar – 6f Class 3 Handicap
🏇 4th – SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE
Not the easiest of horses to figure out but there’s a few signs on recent starts that he’s on the verge of bagging his 3rd career win, and he would likely have finished even closer in this had he got a clear run around a furlong out… the following are the current set of PC I have attached to his name… OR 78 or less | C3 or less (worth 9k or less) | 6f-7.5f | DSLR 28 or less = 415122 (2/6, 2p – both career wins)…
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⭕ 712 Ayr – 1m2f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 5th – RAVENSCRAIG CASTLE
They finally dispensed with the headgear on this lad (he’s 0/10 with headgear) but why they dropped him back to a 1m2f trip is anyone’s guess… he is 0/5, 0p over less than 1m3f and he’s clearly a horse that enjoys a longer trip… maybe this was just a spin to keep him ticking for a different target and if that was the case then it was job done, as he was never put into this race with any real gusto and was never in any sort of position to lay down a challenge… hopefully they keep the headgear off going forward as I’m convinced he’s a better animal without any on, and I’ll be looking out for him under the following… OR 83 or less | C3 or less Turf Hcps | 1m3f-2m | June-Sept | NO HEADGEAR = 25211 (2/5, 2p – both career wins)… he ran here off OR 72 and he’s definitely on a winnable mark right now…
📅 Sunday 11th August
⭕ 210 Ripon – 1m Class 6 Handicap
🏇 3rd – LITTLE TED
This 7yo has shown some consistent form this season and he’s still on a competitive mark, running here off OR 57, only 3lbs above his last winning mark, 2lb below his second-last winning mark and 6lbs below his peak winning mark… I have PC for him as… 1m-1m2f | C6 | May-Sept | OR 63 or less | DSLR <21 = 7/15, 4p – all 7 career wins… he’s yet to win later than August but he has placed in September, so I’d still keep him on the radar next month, although ideally, he’ll find his PC again before this month is out…
🏇 5th – MOUNT KING
A horse that peaks in the second half of the year and he’s slid back down the handicap nicely for his peak months… both his wins to date have come in Sept & Oct so he may have still been coming to the boil on this run, but I have PC for him as… 1m-1m2f Hcps | July-Oct | OR 67 or less | DSLR 10-20 = 53151 (2/5, 1p – both career wins)… and I’d maybe slacken up a couple of the other parameters a touch when he hits his absolute prime months of Sept & Oct…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps – Handicaps
LTO – Last Time Out
That’s all from me today… I’m off to start the behind the scenes work for my 2024 York Ebor Festival analysis…
Those major flat festivals just keep on rolling at this time of the year…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
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