Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes: 4th & 5th October
Time for the LAST set of NTF Handicap Sleeper Notes for the 2024 flat season…
As always the Arc de Triomphe signifies the end of my NTF Summer Service (Bluestocking nailed in my members race guide to round the season out in style 😎🤩) and I’m now in ‘recharge mode’ to get myself ready for the 2024/25 National Hunt season…
Still time, however, for one final bunch of Handicap Sleeper notes… let’s get to it…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 4th & 5th October
.
🗓️ Friday 4th October
⭕ 247 Ascot – 2m Class 3 Handicap
🏇 5th – WIND YOUR NECK IN
The 5yo is on a winnable mark at present – ran here off OR 83, high win mark is OR 86, went down 2lbs to OR 81 for this effort – but he will likely have needed this run… all his career wins have come off a break of 28-days or less and he was running off a break of 34-days here. All 3 of his previous wins have come in the September-November period (for all he can run well enough out with this period) so he’s in his prime months right now and it’s worth looking out for him getting his PC in the coming weeks… OR 86 or less | G/S or softer | DSLR 28 or less | NO Headgear = 1324211 (3/7, 3p – all 3 career wins)…
.
.
🗓️ Saturday 5th October
⭕ 130 Newmarket – 1m2f Class 2 Handicap
🏇 11th – YORKSHIRE LADY
The 6yo finished last of the 11 here but she was only beaten 7L at the line, which actually isn’t all that far considering she finds races at this level out with her comfort zone… she’s now 0/4, 0p in races worth 21k+ and this level of race just stretches her class limitations too far… she’s still on a winnable mark after her win at Ayr last month – ran here off OR 82, 4lbs below her highest win mark, went down 1lb to OR 81 for this run – and she’s still worth keeping on the radar for getting her PC… Turf Hcps worth <21k | OR 86 or less | DSLR <29 = 141112711 (6/9, 1p – all 6 turf wins)… 4 of her 6 turf wins have come in Sept to Oct so she does go well at this time of the year…
**
⭕ 315 Newmarket – 1m4f Class 2 Handicap
🏇 3rd – FLASH BARDOT
A solid enough effort from the 4yo but realistically she was never really a threat in the contest and just picked off a place as others fell away… she’s now back on her last and highest win mark of OR 85 and a drop back in class (she is now 0/6, 1p at C2 level+) would look a smart move for her… I have PC for her of… OR 85 or less | C3 or less | LH tracks = 111821132 (5/9, 3p – all 5 career wins)… she’s 2/5, 1p in the Sept-Oct period and she’ll be of interest if they just shift her sights down a little…
**
⭕ 245 Redcar – 1m2f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 4th – SPIORADALTA
The 4yo dipped out of form over the summer months but he never really had Prime Conditions to attack during that period, so was no real surprise he wasn’t showing much… this was much better from him, a race where he did have PC… C4 or less Hcps (worth <10k) | OR 78 or less | G/S or softer | DSLR 25 or less = 4112221 (3/7, 3p – all 3 career wins)… and he’s worth keeping on the radar in coming starts with the ground hopefully remaining on his side… they may need to dip back in trip with him (he’s now 0/2, 0p over >1m1f trips) although I’d remain open, for now, about where his stamina limits may sit…
**
⭕ 537 Redcar – 5f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 6th – ELEGANT ERIN
A low draw (stalls 1 & 2 finished 1-2 in this) and up on the pace were the key attributes at Redcar this day… so Paul Midgley’s 7yo breaking from stall 8 and running held-up were always going to have her at a major disadvantage… given the major drift throughout the day on the mare it’s clear they had accepted their fate long before race time as well… in the end she actually ran a race a lot better than the bare 2.9L 6th of 11 would suggest, given she was never really asked for maximum effort and had very few buttons pressed… she ran here off her highest win mark of OR 81 and only 2lbs above her last winning mark… and a similar race (with a better draw to attack from) would make her of interest, especially if she gets her PC to attack… C4 or less Hcps (<7k) | 5f | OR 81 or less | May-Oct = 6/9, 1p (6 of 7 career wins)…
**
⭕ 335 Ascot – 7f Class 2 Handicap
🏇 3rd – BOPEDRO
This was another solid effort from David O’Meara’s 8yo and although he’s 0/13 this season, he has run plenty of races to suggest he’s in fine form and always worth considering when he gets his PC… OR 98 or less | 7f-1m Hcps on a straight or RH track | Soft+ = 30265011103111 (6/14, 4p – all 6 career wins)… conditions he had here… nothing was beating VOLTERRA this day, however, and BOPEDRO’s chances were compromised by meeting closed doors at vital stages of the race… he ran here off OR 96 and that puts him 6lbs below the mark he ran fourth off in the Balmoral Handicap here at Ascot on Champions Day last year… he’s entered again this season and would be an interesting contender again…
.
.
Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps – Handicaps
LTO – Last Time Out
CP’s – Cheek-Pieces
In other news…
…and that’s me done on the free NTF Blog for a few weeks now…
Hopefully you’ve enjoyed the Handicapper Sleeper Notes and have managed to land on some profitable plays from them…
All being well I’ll be back posting here from next month (November) although you’ll still be able to catch me on The Racing PodBlast every Friday (VOLTERRA was a well-backed winner in the latest episode 🥳)…
Thanks to the many of you that have been reading and making use of the Handicap Sleeper Notes over the past few months…
Ciao for now…
Ben (NTF)
To keep updated with all things NTF you can join the free NTF List on the following link…
>>>Join the FREE NTF List
You can find all previous FREE NTF blog posts on this page>>>
Hi Ben,
I hope you have had a profitable summer and not too many trips to see the seagulls in the far north???
When will you start your NH service and any idea of the cost, particularly as that bunch of hypocrites have taking away the Winter Fuel Allowance!!!
How is Mrs NTF, long covid symptoms easing?
Best wishes to you both,
Martin
Hi Martin
Very happy with how the summer went 👍 and even better is the fact I made ZERO visits back to the homeland to be attacked by damn seagulls 🤩🥳
No concrete plans as to the start date of the jumps service, but I’ll be having 3-weeks break at the very least… so will definitely be into November before I get things going again for the jumps…
I’ve no plans on raising the prices so will the same as last year (around £139 for a season ticket, can’t remember the exact price right now…)… I’ll keep everyone informed via the members mailing list/free mailing list 👍
Thanks for asking about Mrs NTF… still the same sadly… no deterioration but equally no improvement… we keep bashing on though…
Hope all well with you 😊
Cheers – Ben (NTF)