Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes: 30th August – 1st September
Back to the regular Handicap Sleeper Notes in this week’s free post… after last week’s York Ebor version…
Nine horses make the latest set of Handicap Sleeper Notes… all nine who ran over the past weekend and, for various reasons, caught my eye with a view to profiting from them in the coming weeks…
Grab a quick cuppa and see which horses make the latest set of notes…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 30th August – 1st September
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📅 Friday 30th August
⭕ 155 Ffos Las – 7.5f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 5th – HODLER
The 5yo was 11/8 fav of the five runners here, which was a bit of a surprise as Heavy ground isn’t ground he enjoys… he’s now 0/4 on Heavy… and a break of only 4-days from his last run also is far from ideal… he’s now 0/7, 0p off breaks of less than 16-days… as such his 14.8L defeat is easily excused here and it’s easy to but a line through the effort… he’s well handicapped at present, running here off OR 76… his last and highest win mark being OR 84… and he’s worth looking out for under the following… OR 84 or less | C4 or less Hcps round a bend | DSLR 16-30 = 12111 (4/5, 1p – all 4 career wins)… away from extremes of going (so NOT Good to Firm or Heavy) would also be preferable…
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⭕ 245 Thirsk – 7f Class 2 Handicap
🏇 3rd – PERSUASION
Only found two progressive 3yo’s too good for him here… but there was enough in this effort, and his two starts prior to this run, to suggest a win isn’t far off for him… he had his Prime Conditions here… Turf 7f round a bend | OR 93 | <19k or less = 332213911 (3/9, 5p – all 3 career wins)… and he’s worth looking out for appearing under similar conditions in the coming weeks… 2 of his 3 wins have come in Aug & Sept and his overall form in Aug-Oct – 2/17, 8p – suggests this is the time of the season where he’s at his best….
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⭕ 315 Thirsk – 6f Class 3 Handicap
🏇 2nd – MAKANAH
The 9yo is finally taking advantage of his slipping mark and he’s worth keeping on the radar whilst he’s in rude health… he ran here off OR 85, which is 19lbs below his peak rating and 11lbs below his peak Handicap winning mark… and whilst he’s unlikely to be reaching those levels again he’s clearly still more than capable of running big races when conditions suit… helped further by the 7lb claim of Tom Marshall (who has been on board the last twice)… I have PC for him as… C2 or less (race worth 14k or less) | Straight turf tracks | May-Oct = 8/19, 6p – all 8 career wins… and he could well post another win on his CV if they can find similar opportunities…
📅 Saturday 31st August
⭕ 150 Sandown – 7f Class 3 Handicap
🏇 6th – LYNDON B
Definitely well-handicapped at present but he’s a horse that has a very tight DSLR period where he runs to his best, with all his wins coming off breaks of 21-30 days… he was running off a break of 15-days here and he’s 0/14, 2p off breaks of <21-days… so no massive surprise to see him finish out of the places in this, despite being well-fancied in the market… he’s in his prime months right now and he’s worth forgiving this effort and looking out for him under the following… C3 or less Hcps | Good+ | July-Sept | OR <91 | DSLR 21-30 = 221111 (4/6, 2p – all 4 career wins)… he had those conditions 2 starts ago when only just failing to get up at Newbury (16th Aug)…
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⭕ 520 Sandown – 5f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 8th – GLAMOROUS BREEZE
Wasn’t beaten far here, despite finishing 8th of the 10 runners, and it was only 1.4L to the winner as he crossed the line… he’s on a winnable mark at present, running here off OR 80 and his high and last winning mark being OR 85, and he’s worth looking out for when meeting with his PC… Hcps worth <10k | July-Sept | Good+ | OR 85 or less = 5/14, 9p – 5 of his 6 career wins…
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⭕ 235 Beverley – 5f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 3rd – MISS BRAZEN
Blindfold came off late here, causing a bit of an awkward start and meaning the 4yo was just a shade out of position from the off (never ideal over 5f at Beverley)… despite that the filly put in a decent effort and she’s in fine form just now and also on a winnable mark (ran here off OR 70)… she’s worth looking out for under her PC… Turf races worth <6k | OR 75 or less = 3331211 (3/7, 3p – all 3 career wins)…
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⭕ 530 Beverley – 1m2f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 8th – WHATWOULDYOUKNOW
Met some serious trouble at around the 2f pole and that ended any chance he had of fighting out a finish… easy to put a line through this effort and he’s worth looking out for when they find another race for him under his PC… (Since with N Tinkler) C6 Hcps | OR <68 | Good+ (A/W) | May-Nov | DSLR <29 = 6/18, 4p (all 6 wins since with Tinkler)… he’s in decent form just now and comfortably on a winnable mark (ran here of OR 54… last win mark was OR 60 & high win mark is OR 67 )…
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⭕ 500 Chester – 6f Class 3 Handicap
🏇 4th – PAWS FOR THOUGHT
Stall 10 was a tricky one for him to breaking from here over 6f but he dug in well and wasn’t beaten far come the line… he’s in decent form right now and he’d still be of some level of interest if they can find him another similar race under his PC… 5f-7f Hcps | May-Sept | Good-G/S-Soft | fields of <15 | OR <88 = 7/16, 3p – all 7 career wins… he generally runs his race here at Chester, especially when racing from a mark below OR 88… 4/14, 4p…
📅 Sunday 1st September
⭕ 422 Brighton – 7f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 2nd – OTAGO
Only just failed to reel in the front-running and unexposed 3yo winner… but there was plenty to like about this effort and he looks like he’s ready to be adding another win to his CV… he’s handicapped to be winning right now, running here off OR 58… 3lbs below his last winning mark and 11lbs below his highest winning mark… and he’s worth looking out for under the following… OR <70 | DSLR <26 | races worth 6k or less | 7f or less = 6/15, 4p – all 6 career wins…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps – Handicaps
LTO – Last Time Out
CP’s – Cheek-Pieces
In other news…
Some things you may have missed on NTF recently…
- NTF Summer Service end of season special offer>>>
- A consistently profitable Scottish Football service>>>
- The latest episodes of ‘The Racing PodBlast>>>
…I’ve also started posting the Trainer Angles from the NTF STATS SHEETS to the FREE NTF email list on a Friday or Saturday… last week the horses highlighted in the free email were…
WALTER HARTRIGHT (2nd at Beverley)
🥇 DEMOCRACY DILEMMA (WINNER at 8/1 at Beverley) 🥇
UNDER SIEGE (6th at Chester)
… I can’t promise an 8/1 every week (I wish!!) but I can promise some seriously well-researched and profitable Trainer Angles to help with your weekend punting… taken from the deep and plentiful resource of my own private trainer angles that full NTF Members make use of, most days of the week, via the NTF Stats Sheets…
If you are already on the FREE NTF List then you need do no more…
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Cheers – Ben (NTF)
p.s. you can see all previous FREE NTF blog posts on this page>>>
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