Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes: 20th, 21st & 22nd September
Some top level handicap action at the Ayr Western Meeting last week… I didn’t manage to land the winner of any of the three Cup races… but did manage to grab at least one placed return (two in the Silver version) in all three of them, and at chunky prices… so happy enough with how those races panned out…
Last week’s Handicap Sleeper Notes also had some quick returners to the track… producing a couple of tidy winners 😎
WATER OF LEITH got the job done in cosy style at Ayr…
VINTAGE CLARETS ploughed down the outside at Chester to land a decent pot…
And the likes of SILKY WILKIE and HIERARCHY posted solid runner-up efforts to add some E/W returns to the coffers…
Hopefully more of the same from this week’s bunch of ‘Handicap Sleepers‘…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 20th, 21st & 22nd September
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📆 Friday 20th September
⭕ 415 Ayr – 6f Class 2 Handicap (Ayr Bronze Cup)
Race Note: They split into two groups here and the far side group (middle to low numbers, the biggest group) had a significant advantage, with the first TEN home all racing in the far side group…
🏇 11th – JUMP THE GUN
Won his side of the draw (broke from stall 18) but had no answer to those racing over on the far side of the track… he’s well handicapped at present, running here off OR 73, 9lbs below his last and highest winning mark and was dropped 1lb for this effort to OR 72, and he definitely fits the profile of a ‘Badly Drawn Horse’ to keep on the radar going forward… a small drop in class might be absolutely ideal for him on coming starts as I have PC for him as… C3 or less Hcp (worth <9k) | June-Dec | G/S or quicker (or AW) | OR 82 or less | DSLR <43 = 1151123732 (4/10, 4p – all 4 handicap wins)… although I’d maybe be a little flexible on where his upper class limit is as he finished 5th in the 2022 Ayr SILVER Cup off OR 90 and he may be up to landing something at a higher level than what I have in his PC…
🏇 14th – SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE
Another that had no chance from his high draw (stall 20) but he ran a sound race to finish a very close 3rd of the 8 on his side of the track… he’s well-handicapped at present off OR 72, 6lbs below his highest winning mark and 12lbs below his highest place mark (was dropped 1lb to OR71 for this run), and a small drop in class and a smaller field around him (which he actually ended up getting here on his side of the draw) would make him of interest, if rocking up under his PC… OR 78 or less | C3 or less (worth 9k or less) | DSLR 14-28 | fields of 11 or less = 161122 (3/6, 2p – all 3 career wins)…
🏇 16th – ROCK MELODY
Broke from the highest stall of all (stall 24) and like everything else on her side of the draw was beaten as soon as the stalls opened… finished 4 of the 8 that stayed down low, and she didn’t have a hard race as her jockey was understandably easy on her in the closer stages… she’s 6lbs below her high win mark at present and is worth looking out for under the following… OR 81 or less | C3 or less (<£13k) | 5f-7f | Good-G/S-Soft (or AW) | June-Oct | DSLR 7-25 = 14121101 (5/8 – 5 of 6 career wins)… she ran at Hamilton on Sunday, finishing 9th of 10 as 7/2f, but she was again unfavoured by the draw and she does seem to need at least 7-days rest between races, with here record off breaks of 6-days or less now reading… 0/7, 2p… and her Hamilton effort is very easily excusable….
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📆 Saturday 21st September
⭕ 225 Ayr – 6f Class 2 Handicap (Ayr Silver Cup)
Race Note: The pace held up well in this, with the first six home all either ‘chasing the leader’ or ‘leading the group’, and this played to the strengths of those that like to race prominently… those that were ‘Held-up’ or raced ‘midfield’ were at a disadvantage…
🏇 8th – LUCKY MAN
Was the second home of those to race midfield/held-up (only Summerghand one place ahead in 7th ran better of the hold-up horses)… and this was a solid enough effort despite never really looking like he would get involved. He came into this off the back of a win at Windsor and he does tend to hold his form well at this stage of the season… 3/9, 2p in handicaps in the Aug-Dec period off marks of <OR92… and he’s worth keeping on the radar for meeting with his PC… OR 91 or less | Handicaps on Good+ (or AW) 3+ seasonal starts | DSLR <50 = 5/12, 2p – all 5 career wins… he was dropped 2lbs to OR 83 for this performance…
🏇 16th – ADMIRAL D
He was held on to here and that gave him too much of a mountain to climb to try and get competitive… the Good ground was also likely to be against him as he’s better on G/S or softer and his form on Good+ now reads… 0/12, 2p… he ran here off OR 84, 1lb below his last and highest winning mark and 13lbs below his peak rating and was dropped a very handy 3lb to OR 81 for this effort… so he’s handicapped to be winning at present and is worth looking out for under the following… OR 85 or less | 6f-6.5f | G/S or softer (or AW) | June or later = 173311 (3/6, 2p – all 3 career wins)… he’s essentially a well-handicapped horse now in his prime months… and one who didn’t have his ground here and who the pace of the race was against…
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⭕ 335 Ayr – 6f Class 2 Handicap (Ayr Gold Cup)
Race Note: The Gold Cup favoured those draw in the top-half, with the first 5 home all drawn 13+ as well as 8 of the first 9 being drawn 13+… those drawn in a single figure stall were at an even bigger disadvantage, with only 1 of the first 13 home breaking from a single figure stall…
🏇 6th – COMMANCHE FALLS
Broke from stall 12 and he was the first home of the bottom half of the draw… this was a very solid run from the 7yo off his lofty perch of OR 107 and although he’s maybe not technically a ‘handicap sleeper’, he has placed in big handicaps off OR 109 (twice) and off this OR 107 mark (2 starts ago at York) and given a better draw he may well have finished a good bit closer than his 4L 6th… these were his absolute PC… Straight 6f | NOT Heavy | C Beasley riding | June-Sept…11/21, 3p – 11 of his 12 career wins… although given he almost won the G3 Benbough Stakes last October and finished 3rd in it the year before, it’s probably worth keeping him in mind for next month, as he clearly holds his form well for longer than the end of this month… he was shuffled down 1lb to OR 106 for this run…
🏇 14th – KINGS LYNN
Broke from stall 1 here and Q1 has long been a tricky place to starting in the Ayr Gold Cup… only 3 of the last 27 winners broke from Q1 and none of the last 17 winners broke from the 6 lowest stalls… so things were always likely to be bordering on impossible for this 7yo to make any sort of impact from stall 1… as such it’s easy to draw a line through this effort… he’s actually yet to win a handicap in 21 attempts but the mark he ran off here… OR 94, dropped 1lb for the run to OR 93… does look one he should be competitive off, especially when you consider he’s placed off marks as high as 107, 104 and 100… he’s a little tricky to pin down to rock solid PC but I do have loose PC for him as… G2 or lower | Flat-Slightly-Und tracks | DSLR 12-42 | carried 9-06 or less = 26112121 (4/8, 3p – all 4 career wins)…
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⭕ 520 Chester – 1m2.5f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 4th – BUSHFIRE
This race was above his pay-grade as he’s now 0/6, 0p in races worth 6k+ and he was always unlikely to make any significant impact here… he’s on a winnable mark at present, running here off OR 63, 5lbs below his last and highest winning mark, and was dropped 1lb to OR 62 for this run… and he’s worth looking out for when down to a less valuable contest and meeting with his PC… OR 68 | race worth <6k | July-Oct = 2313113 (3/7, 4p – all 3 career wins)…
📆 Sunday 22nd September
Nothing to note…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps – Handicaps
LTO – Last Time Out
CP’s – Cheek-Pieces
In other news…
Expected Goals (xG)… a term/statistic I’m sure you’re familiar with if you regularly watch football on the tele-box…
I’ve always been a bit skeptical of it if I’m honest… I’m still to be totally convinced by the value of the xG stats…
But I like to keep an open mind on such things… there’s always the potential for such things to lead to value betting opportunities… unfortunately, however, I don’t have the time to properly dig into it… so I’ve pushed the xG stuff to the side… until I could find someone to do the hard work/xG explaining for me…
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Now, don’t get me wrong… I’m still in the ‘need to be convinced about xG stats‘ zone… but the Predictology ‘xG UNCOVERED‘ guide is currently available for FREE (it was previously being sold at £97) so I can now boost my knowledge without opening my wallet… so it’s a no-brainer 👍⚽
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Cheers – Ben (NTF)
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