Three to follow from the Weekend: 9th, 10th & 11th February…
A bit of a weather impacted weekend of racing that has just entered the form book… but the meetings that did survive served up plenty of highs (and lows) to keep the National Hunt juices flowing…
Before I drop this week’s ‘Three to follow…’ I just want to have a quick look back at the ‘Opera Hat Mares Chase‘ that was run a Naas on Saturday…
The Willie Mullins trained ALLEGORIE DE VASSY picked off the Listed prize with relative ease, holding off the Gordon Elliot trained Riviere D’etel by a comfortable 4-lengths…
The reason this caught my eye is because the winner would snuggly fit the Stats that I highlighted in my recent FREE Cheltenham Festival Guide, which was posted to the free NTF list last week…
She also fits the profile of previous Willie Mullins Cheltenham Festival Mares races winners…
Since 2008 there have been 27 races at the Cheltenham Festival that have been restricted to Mares…
Willie Mullins has won a whopping 16 (SIXTEEN!) of them…
59% of the Mares races at the Cheltenham Festival have been won by Willie Mullins…
Mad… but not in any way surprising…
He has saddled 73-runners in the Mares races and last year (2023) was the first year he failed to pick up a winner in one of the Cheltenham Festival Mares races (he didn’t have a runner in a Mares race in 2008)… and you can whittle those 73-runners down to a bit more of a manageable chunk…
…by adding the following filters…
Cheltenham Festival Mares Races
Trained by Willie Mullins
SP 6/1 or less
WON in a C1, C2 or C3 race LTO
…which has returned figures of…
13/25 | 52% S/R | +£19.14 BFLSP – W&P 19/25 | 76% S/R
23% above expectation
So… 81% of the Willie Mullins Cheltenham Festival Mares races winners found in only 34% of his runners…
He had 8 runners in the Mares races in 2023… resulting in 0 winners and only 1 placed runner… the 1 placed runner was the ONLY horse to qualify on the above Willie Mullins Cheltenham Festival Mares Races angle…
That horse was ALLEGORIE DE VASSY… unfortunately for her, however, she ran into the very classy IMPERVIOUS…
Willie Mullins has stated that the Mares’ Chase (Registered As The Liberthine Mares’ Chase) is the plan again for Allegorie De Vassy… and she’ll likely qualify on the Willie Mullins stats mentioned above (obvious at this stage we can only guess at her SP… but it will likely be 6/1 or less…) AND the Cheltenham Festival Mares races stats in my FREE Cheltenham Festival guide…
She should be a player again as she bids to go one place better…
If you are yet to get you hands on the first of my Cheltenham Festival free guides then slide along to the following page and pick up your copy today…
>>>FREE NTF 2024 Cheltenham Festival Guide
Now for the latest ‘Three to follow from the weekend‘…
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Three to follow from the weekend: 9th, 10th & 11th February…
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KILLER KANE (J Tizzard)
3rd in a Class 3 Handicap Chase – 1.40 Kempton (Friday 9th)
Should come on for this outing as he is now 0/6 off breaks of 60-days+ (this was DSLR 69) and he is now in his prime months of Feb-April.
I still have his Prime Conditions as…
Feb-Apr | DSLR <60 = 3513111 (4/7, 2p – all 4 career wins)
…he is currently a little bit above his last and highest winning mark, but if they keep using Freddie Gingell in the saddle then his claim would help take the horse back down to a mark where he’ll be competitive off…
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JUDICIAL LAW (JJ O’Neill)
5th in a Class 3 Handicap Hurdle – 1.30 Newbury (Saturday 10th)
Qualified for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham by finishing second in a qualifier back in October and I suspect his last two runs have just been about keeping him ticking over for that assignment.
He’s on a mark (OR 132, went down 1lb for this run) that will almost certainly see him secure a run, and I expect they were just blowing away some cobwebs here… this was his first run for 84 days and he is 0/8, 2p off breaks of >42 days so he will be in much better shape for next month with this run under his belt…
If you look at the 7yo under the following…
Trips of 2m1f+ | breaks of 42-days or less
… you see he is…
6/9, 1p – all 6 career wins
…and he could be an interesting one for the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival…
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INCH HOUSE (JJ O’Neill)
4th in a Class 3 Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase – 3.50 Newbury (Saturday 10th)
I suspect this performance was heavily ground related… on Good to Soft or quicker he holds form of 41311 (3/5) whilst on Soft or Heavy his form reads 324 (0/3) and he never looked in anyway happy on this testing ground…
It wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see him bounce back in the spring when the ground dries out, as a 7yo with only 5 chase starts on his CV he should still have plenty more to offer…
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Other news…
A quick update on the two horses I currently have a share in…
DIXIE COWBOY made his racecourse debut at Catterick yesterday… the run was all about getting him out on the racetrack and getting his career up and running… it was testing ground yesterday but he jumped out of it well, which is a positive as it’s unlikely that sort of ground will be ideal for him… his future is very much chasing but he needs to get a few runs under his belt to strengthen him up first and fill out into his big old Westerner frame…
You can see a short clip of him heading out to the paddock this morning for a leg stretch on the link below…
Dixie Cowboy the morning after>>>
p.s. there’s still 5% left to be filled in the Dixie Cowboy syndicate (well there was pre-race anyway)… so if you are interested then you can get all the details HERE>>>
Jockey and trainer both very happy with him after his debut effort, plenty was against him but he plugged on well and he will now know plenty more about what is expected of him going forward…
Go on the Cowboy! 🤠
And the other boy – BLAZING SOLDIER – is getting ready to strut his stuff at Carlisle next Monday (19th Feb)…
He’s ticking along nice and steady after his debut win at Newcastle last month and he’s stepping up to 2m4f for this next start… obviously he has to carry a penalty after his win last time out but he’s progressing well and I think we are all hopeful of a decent run from the boy…
His trainer – Mark Walford – has some solid stats at Carlisle since 2021 in C3-C5 contests…
8/38 | 21% S/R | +£91.30 BFLSP – W&P 16/38 | 42% S/R
…so hopefully BLAZING SOLDIER can boost those stats further…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Thank you as always for your shrewd insights.
Do you see Killer Kane going close at Kempton: was a tad disappointing last year. Odds are quite appealing. Having said that, Our Power won after running ok (unlucky) the previous year to winning.
AH seems to have a strong hand and Flegmatik was only just chinned last year…
Thanks Paul and glad you enjoy the posts 😀
I think Killer Kane may have a chance of going closer in the Coral Cup at Kempton this year, especially if they keep Freddie Gingell on-board… he’s on same mark as he ran in race last year but Gingell’s 5lb claim would be a big positive…
He also ran off a wind-op last Saturday and he could improve again for the second run off it (some horses do)… so I do half wonder if last Saturday was all about getting him ready for another crack at the Coral Cup (a run to teach him he can breathe better after his wind-op and also a run to get his fitness up so he falls within his preferred DSLR period)…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)