Three to follow from the weekend: 8th, 9th & 10th December…
Well that was a wet weekend…
I mentioned this on TAFKAT yesterday (the artist formerly known as Twitter 😐)…
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-18.9 is seriously (SERIOUSLY!) testing conditions…
Away from Aintree, but also on testing ground, we had the two main players for the 2024 QMCC strutting their stuff on either side of the Irish Sea… with JONBON digging out a win in the Tingle Creek at Sandown and EL FABIOLO coasting to victory in the Hilly Way Chase at Cork… both, I thought, putting in impressive performances and enhancing their QMCC credentials in the process…
On the figures front, both clocked very strong performances, which was noteworthy for me as I wouldn’t think either of them really want to be running on quite as testing ground as they encountered at the weekend… as the saying goes, however, ‘good horses can win on any ground’ and that’s exactly what they both did in their respective contests…
Let’s hope they both stay fit for their Cheltenham Festival rematch in March… and let’s also hope we see them a few more times before that… they are both high class horses and they both deserve to be out on the racetrack scoofing up graded races…
There was plenty other action taking place for me to pull together a chunky set of ‘Weekend Notes’ for full NTF Members… and here are three from those notes for the latest…
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Three to follow from the weekend: 8th, 9th & 10th December…
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GREENROCK ABBEY (K Lee)
2nd in a Class 3 Handicap Chase – 1.15 Sandown (Friday 8th)
This was a decent effort on seasonal return and there was enough in the run to suggest there should still be more to come from him this season over fences. This was, in fact, a career best effort on the figures (and above par for the class level) and it may just have been that the winner – Mount Tempest – had race fitness on his side as well as his Prime Conditions to shoot for.
The third placed horse was far enough behind and GREENROCK ABBEY is worth keeping on the radar in coming starts, especially on ground with a bit more cut underfoot… the ground was riding a bit closer to Good to Soft at this stage of the Sandown meeting (as opposed to the official Soft description) so he’ll be OK on even more testing ground than this (his last win came on ground that was closer to Very Heavy than the official Soft) and he’s worth looking out for under the following…
Handicaps | Soft-Heavy | 2m1f or less = 2131 (2/4, 2p – both career wins)
…I’d possibly be a little flexible on the trip (he could get a little further as he matures) and a return to Hereford would be a positive (both previous wins there) although I don’t think he ‘needs’ to be going right-handed…
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MIDNIGHT MARY (L Wadham)
5th in a Class 3 Handicap Chase – 3.00 Sandown (Friday 8th)
Possibly suffered for being bang on the pace for most of the race and she just didn’t have enough left in the tank for the climb to the line up the Sandown straight. It was still a decent effort, however, and she helped contribute to what was a solid pace and still managed to post a figure above par for the level.
The mare may prove at her absolute best going Left-Handed as she did shift Left-Handed a couple of times in this race and her overall LH/RH splits read…
1/5, 1p on a RH track compared to 4/16, 4p on a LH track
…she did also shift out to her left on her one win on a right-handed track…
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GUSTAVIAN (A Honeyball)
2nd in a Class 2 Handicap Chase – 1.30 Aintree (Saturday 9th)
Despite it being 14L to the winner at the line this was a better effort than it looked, as he posted a figure pretty much on par for the level and his mark of OR 135 should be within range for him (he went down 1lb to OR 134 for the run).
He’s a horse that generally needs his first two starts of a season to get going… this was his second start of this season, and he is now 0/10, 4p on his first 2 starts in a season… and he’s worth keeping in mind now that his fitness levels should be up to scratch, especially if he turns up under the following conditions…
NOT 1st or 2nd seasonal start | Jan – Feb | DSLR >27 = 1111 (4/4 – all 4 career wins)
…3 of those wins have come on Heavy ground so he’s perfectly at home on testing conditions…
In other news…
I often mention the Proform Speed Figures in these articles and they have long been my source of determining the performance level of a horse and/or the overall standard of a race…
I have a few methods of using the Proform Speed Figures to enhance my betting/analysis, one of those methods is outlined in a recent guest post I produced for the Proform website…
You can find that article on the following link…
The Power of Proform: How Speed Figures Can Help You Uncover Future Winners
I’m sure plenty of you will find the post of interest…
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And since Midnight Mary was one of the 3 to follow this week I think that calls for a bit of ‘Proud Mary‘ from the mighty Creedence Clearwater Revival (man they were a tight live band!)…
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Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Read all previous NTF posts here>>>
I like the look of Gustavian, who finished in-front of Midnight River (on level terms) over 3-mile at Uttoxeter on 19-Mar-22. He’d be getting 20lb from that one now. He does seem to be a horse that needs to grind-out a win: the 9x 2nds from 21 starts suggests he’s got no gears – it may be 3m5f, but the Warwick Classic in January could be his next start; and right up his street.
Good shout with the Classic Chase at Warwick Ian, that would fit his Prime Conditions nicely and also a good chance of getting Soft or Heavy ground to attack… whilst he doesn’t ‘need’ that ground it will certainly inconvenience others and allow him the chance to grind out the win (a good description of him there from yourself 👍).
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Thanks Ben for the Creedence Clearwater memories, keep on rollin
with the column.
Cheers Bill, glad you enjoyed a bit of CCR 👍🎸😎
Ben (NTF)