Three to follow from the Weekend: 31st Jan – 2nd Feb…

Another Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) in the form book… and another Dublin Racing Festival dominated by Willie Mullins…

15 races over the two days… SEVEN of them won by the master that is Willie Mullins… including SIX of the eight Grade 1’s on offer…

He’s simply an unstoppable beast with an endless supply of high quality ammo to fire…

On the stats front and looking ahead to the 2025 Cheltenham Festival… I’ve an interesting angle to flag up to you concerning Willie Mullins and his Dublin Racing Festival WINNERS going on to the Cheltenham Festival…

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Willie Mullins | Cheltenham Festival | WON at the DRF LTO | aged 8yo or younger | Exactly 2 starts in the last 90-days

14/31 | 45% S/R | +£29.47 BFLSP – W&P 26/31 | 84% S/R

13% above expectation | E/W returns = +£40.59

*If you look at the stats for just the last 4 Cheltenham Festival (2021 – 2024) and look only at those that started as SP Fav at Cheltenham… then the angle returns a form line of…

1111111F1111 (11/12 | 92% S/R | +£9.54 BFLSP)

The F? Well that was the one and only GALOPIN DES CHAMPS when he fell/slipped after the last in the Turners when he was 11L clear and cruising… 😵‍💫

Thanks to NTF reader Charles J for bringing this ‘angle within an angle’ to my attention 👍

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The profits are boosted/kept alive in no uncertain terms by RELEGATE winning the 2018 Bumper at a BFSP of 29.00… so not an angle I’d be suggesting to follow blind… but given the high strike-rate on both the Win AND Win & Place side, it’s nothing if not an excellent starting point when looking to find Willie Mullins runners that hold a strong likelihood of backing up their DRF win at the Cheltenham Festival…

Indeed if you look at the 2024 & 2023 Cheltenham Festivals you see that the Willie Mullins qualifiers on the above angle pulled in a form line of…

5122213111231 (6/13, 6p)

…only ONE failing to at least PLACE!

More Cheltenham Stats & Trends from me in the coming weeks… for now, however, let’s get back to the business at hand… here’s the latest…

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Three to follow from the weekend: 31st Jan – 2nd Feb…

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FORTUNEFAVORSDBOLD (Christian Williams)

2nd in a Class 5 Handicap Chase – 1:45 Lingfield (Friday 31st Jan) 

The mare has only ever won in February or March (3/5, 1p in Feb-Mar compared to 0/16, 1p all other months) and there was enough in this effort to suggest they are getting her ready to peak again in her prime months…

I have her Prime Conditions as…

OR 109 or less | Feb-March | DSLR 30 or less = 1113 (3/4, 1p – all 3 career wins)

…and re-application of headgear will be a likely sign they are ready to strike with her… she is 3/9 with headgear compared to 0/12 without headgear (she wasn’t wearing headgear here)…

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 O’CONNELL (Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith)

1st in a Class 2 Handicap Chase – 3:42 Sandown (Saturday 1st Feb)

The 9yo is really starting to roll now and this improved his Prime Conditions to…

Chases on RH tracks | >2m6f = 11122412 (4/8, 3p – all 4 career wins)

He handled the test the Sandown track & fences provided him with exceptionally well and he could be interesting if rocking up in the Bet365 Gold Cup (at Sandown) on the final day of the season in April…

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RED RISK (Paul Nicholls)

3rd in a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle – 3:00 Musselburgh (Sunday 2nd Feb)  

The 10yo was back on a winning mark for the first time for a long time here and he caught the eye with this effort…

This was his first run for 261-days, so he was giving away race fitness to the rest of the field, and that probably just took its toll in the closing stages… a noteworthy effort nonetheless and he’s worth looking out for reappearing under his Prime Conditions in the coming weeks…

Handicaps | OR 136 or less = 31161 (3/5, 1p – all 3 career wins)…

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That’s all from me this week… I’m off to start work on my 2025 Cheltenham Festival Free Guide… 

As always seems to be the case these days, real life has been getting in my way over the past week or so… wouldn’t it be great if you could just pause the outside world for a bit… just the odd hour here and there… 😑🫤 anyway… I’m locking myself away for a bit and getting my serious Cheltenham Festival trends & stats hat firmly rammed onto my bonce!!

If you are on the Free NTF List then my 2025 Cheltenham Festival Guide will drop with you in a bit…

If you are not yet on the Free NTF List then get your name inserted HERE>>>

Cheers – Ben (NTF)

Get all previous FREE Blog posts HERE>>>

p.s. make sure you check out the weekly Racing Podcast – The Racing PodBlast – that I produce with my good pal Tony Mac… there’s a new episode available every Friday and it’s only ever 20-minutes long 😎

>>>Check out the Racing PodBlast HERE

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