3 Dec

Three to follow from the Weekend: 29th & 30th November and 1st December…

Once Sunday’s racing was done and dusted, the chat became focused on a certain grey French bred mare that had romped to victory at Fairyhouse and in the process plonked herself bang at the head of the Champion Hurdle market… the mare in question being, obviously, the Willie Mullins trained LOSSIEMOUTH…

NTF members and I were also focused on a grey French bred mare that had romped herself to victory on Sunday… but it wasn’t Lossiemouth… hell nah!! We were celebrating the victory of a grey French bred mare who operates in slightly calmer waters… one GIPSY LEE ROSE… a horse who was posted on the NTF Sunday Stats Sheet as she had her PRIME CONDITIONS to attack… and her trainer Nick Alexander also did well with similar types to the mare when switching up the headgear (which he had done on Gipsy Lee Rose)…

…so there were plenty positives for the mare with how I look at things… but she had been completely ignored by the market…

…indeed she started at an SP 40/1… and a whopping Betfair SP of 80.0…

…the COMPLETE OUTSIDER of the 13-runner field…

Job done 🥳🥳🥳

Lossiemouth who?!?! 😅

There was only ONE grey French bred mare that mattered at NTF HQ on Sunday 😉

On yersel Gipsy girl 💪

Needless to say neither Lossiemouth or Gipsy Lee Rose make the 3 to follow this week…

…but the following threesome do…

Three to follow from the weekend: 29th & 30th November and 1st December…

RETURN FIRE (Lucinda Russell)

3rd in a Class 5 Handicap Chase – 1.45 Musselburgh (Friday 29th Nov)

Handicapped to be winning at present off OR 100 but he’s 0/11, 2p on RH tracks and 0/9, 1p on Flat tracks and he’s a better horse the other way round, and on tracks with at least some undulations… I have a tight set of PC for him as…

LH tracks with undulations | C5 Hcp Chases | OR 103 or less | Oct-Dec = 1111 (4/4 – all 4 career wins)

…I’d maybe be flexible on the month angle and possibly the Class angle (he has placed 4-times at C4 level)…

SOME SCOPE (Richard Hobson)

4th in a Class 1 Handicap Chase – 3.20 Newcastle (Saturday 30th Nov)

Bar the opening 4-runner juvenile hurdle contest, the track this day at Newcastle was favouring those that were front-running or sitting close to the pace… as such, it was always going to be a tough task for this one to lay down a strong challenge from his Midfield/HU position… despite that, there was a lot more to like about this run than his seasonal debut run at Cheltenham and I’d still be keeping his PC as…

LH tracks | fields of <14 | DSLR 70 or less = 42111 (3/5, 1p – all 3 career wins)

…this was his first run off a wind-op and the Richard Hobson runners do tend to need their first run off the op… with stats of 0/22, 3p on first run off a wind-op… but they do improve on subsequent starts… 4/18, 2p on 2^nd run off a wind-op and 9/49, 9p on 2^nd, 3^rd & 4^th run combined off a wind-op…

…so with this run in the bank he’s one who looks worth keeping in mind on coming starts… he ran here off OR 125 and that’s unlikely to be the ceiling of his abilities…

HOMBRE DE GUERRA (Nick Alexander)

2nd in a Class 3 Novice Chase – 12.55 Carlisle (Sunday 1st Dec)

Even ignoring the fact that he finished behind 2/11 Fav CALDWELL POTTER, there’s a couple of reasons to keep this 6yo on the radar…

…first up… he was running here off a wind-op and runners from his trainer – Nick Alexander – do tend to improve for their first effort off a wind-op… the Alexander horses on first start off a wind-op are… 2/50 | 4% S/R | -£24.00 – W&P 7/50 | 14% S/R… whilst on their second run off a wind-op they are… 9/43 | 21% S/R | +£9.13 – W&P 14/4333% S/R… so likely he’ll come on for this first effort off the op…

…secondly… offspring of his sire – Soldier Of Fortune – also improve for their first spin over fences… on chase debut they return… 11/105 | 10% S/R | -£46.82 – W&P 25/105 | 24% S/R… on second chase start they are… 12/66 | 18% S/R | +£14.96 – W&P 21/66 | 32% S/R… and on third chase run they are… 12/48 | 25% S/R | +£9.82 – W&P 19/48 | 40% S/R…

…if you look at Soldier Of Fortune 6yo-8yo offspring on 2^nd & 3^rd Chase start and that start at an SP of 16/1 or less… you get… 21/65 | 32% S/R | +£64.22 – W&P 31/65 | 48% S/R…

…so plenty of pointers to suggest this 6yo is well worth keeping on the radar, at least in the short-term…

I’ll be back next Tuesday with the next installment of… ‘Three to follow from the weekend’…

And remember… the ‘Three to follow…’ horses are all taken from the full copy of NTF Weekend Notes that I provide for NTF Members every Monday…

To receive those detailed notes… and to make sure you don’t miss out on any future GIPSY LEE ROSE types… then pick up your NTF Season Ticket today…