Three to follow from the Weekend: 21st-23rd February…

…actually only the ONE to follow today…

I’m now deep into my Cheltenham Festival analysis… which means I ratchet down my other racing betting and analysis a touch… just to give my brain a bit of room to breathe for the mountain of Cheltenham work I need to plough through over the next couple of weeks… 😵‍💫🫨

Before I get onto this week’s ‘to follow’ horse, I’ve got some Cheltenham Festival stats for you to factor into your own analysis…

I want to highlight the record of those horses that ran at Saturday’s KEMPTON meeting and then went on to run at the Cheltenham Festival next time out…

Looking at the last ten renewals of the Cheltenham Festival this is how those that ran at Kempton performed when rocking up at Prestbury Park two and a bit weeks later…

1/89 | 1% S/R | -£55.00 LSP – W&P 7/89 | 8% S/R

79% below expectation | E/W returns = -£104.15 LSP

…which is pretty damn poor to be fair! On both the win AND the win and place side…

Those that run in a Chase at the Cheltenham Festival take a hefty hit… 0/48, 5p…

And horses aged 5yo+ take an even bigger hit… 0/67, 6p…

And even those horses that managed to score a top-3 finish at Kempton struggle to make an impact at the Cheltenham Festival… 0/49, 3p…

The stats above are perhaps not a huge surprise… the Kempton meeting comes within 3-weeks of the Cheltenham Festival and it’s probably a little on the tight side to have top-level horses tuned up for both meetings…

Kempton is also a flat and tight Right-Handed track… pretty much the exact opposite of the Galloping and Very Undulating Left-Handed Cheltenham… so, again, it’s probably not a massive surprise that even those that run well at the Kempton meeting are not able to replicate the form at the markedly different Cheltenham a couple weeks later…

As always, the above is simply a guide to what has previously occurred and should be used as part of the wider analysis picture, rather than saying horse XX can’t win because of this, that or the other… for all they are certainly a solid set of negative stats to be aware of…

And if you want MORE Cheltenham Festival Stats then make sure you grab the first of my FREE NTF Cheltenham Festival guides…

>>>Download your FREE Cheltenham Festival Guide HERE

Now for this week’s three one to follow…

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Three One to follow from the weekend: 21st-23rd February…

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 HYLAND (N Henderson)

2nd in a Class 1 Handicap Chase – 3:35 Kempton (Saturday 22nd Feb) 

Very surprised this one started as 11/4 fav… Nicky Henderson indicated before the race that the Grand National is his main aim this season, so I would have been very surprised if they had him 100% ready to fire here… and given he was ridden in a ‘Held-Up’ running style instead of his usual ‘Front-Running/Close to Pace’ style, this did seem like a race just to keep him ticking and tuned up for April over the National fences…

He’s also shown to be a much better horse Left-Handed, with his LH/RH splits now reading…

Form on LH tracks = 7/16, 5p

Form on RH tracks = 0/6, 2p

…and the way he finished his race off down the wide outside on Saturday also backs up the fact he’s probably at his best going the other way round…

I have his Prime Conditions as…

LH tracks over 2m4f+ | G/S or quicker | March-Nov = 7/12, 2p – all 7 career wins

…he’s 0/8 in the Dec-Feb period and he’s possibly best away from the deep winter months…

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Cheers – Ben (NTF)

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