Three to follow from the Weekend: 16th, 17th & 18th February…
…well actually only ONE to follow… I’m short on time today as I’m off to the Sam England yard to watch one of the horses I have a share in – Dixie Cowboy – strut his stuff on the gallops… traffic depending that is… I’m picking Josh from the RTP syndicate up first and then we are running the early morning traffic gauntlet 🫣🫣🫣 so wish us luck!!
Before I drop this week’s ‘to follow…‘ post, here are some more stats for you to ponder over as you pick away at your own Cheltenham Festival analysis… if you are indeed on the Cheltenham train right now… which at a guess I’d say most are (to varying levels)…
This week I wanted to highlight the record of those horses that ran at Saturday’s 3 UK meetings – Ascot, Haydock & Wincanton – and then went on to run at the Cheltenham Festival next time out…
Looking at the last ten years and bunching them all together as a group, this is how they performed at Cheltenham…
6/291 | 2% S/R | -£123.15 BFLSP – W&P 35/291 | 12% S/R
64% below expectation | E/W returns = -£291.42
…which isn’t great to be honest!
In 7 of the 10 years they drew a blank…
In each of 2014, 2016 & 2022 they bagged two winners…
The individual track splits look like…
Ascot LTO (Betfair Chase meeting) – 4/117, 14p
Haydock LTO (GN Trial meeting) – 2/131, 10p
Wincanton LTO (Kingwell Hurdle meeting) – 0/43, 5p
…the Haydock ‘expected winners’ figure is 70% below expectation… which is a concern… and it could well be that the deep ground usually found at the Haydock meeting just takes a bit too much out of the runners… and the Cheltenham Festival possibly just comes around a bit quicker than they’d like…
Those heading to the Novice races at Cheltenham perform slightly better than the horses heading to open company…
Cheltenham Festival Novice contest – 4/63, 3p (5% below expectation)
Cheltenham Festival Non-Novice contest – 2/228, 26p (84% below expectation)
L’HOMME PRESSE heading to the Gold Cup to try and lower the colours of Galopin Des Champs has some hefty stats to overcome there… even more so when you drill down into the stats and see that both those Non-Novice winners came in Handicap company… those that ran in Non-Handicap company returned… 0/82, 8p… 🤔
I could dig into the finer details plenty if truth be told but I’ll close out this section with…
Cheltenham Festival | Ran at Ascot, Haydock & Wincanton LTO (mid Feb meetings) | 1-2 or 5+ seasonal starts
1/164 | 0.5% S/R | -£150.57 BFLSP – W&P 17/164 | 10% S/R
89% below expectation | E/W returns = -£250.82
So essentially you’ve got a better chance of overcoming the ‘poor warm-up meeting‘ stat if it was part of a more ‘standard’ prep (3-4 seasonal runs) than those with a ‘lighter’ campaign ( 1 or 2) or those with a ‘heavier’ campaign (5+)…
L’HOMME PRESSE falls into the ‘lighter’ campaign as Ascot was only his second run of the season… 🤔🤔
All that, of course, is simply a guide to what has previously occurred and should be used as part of the wider analysis picture, rather than saying XX can’t win because of XX, YY & ZZ… for all they are some solid stats to be aware of… especially if you are a potential L’HOMME PRESSE backer…
And if you want more 2024 Cheltenham Festival Stats then make sure you grab the first of my FREE NTF Cheltenham Festival guides…
>>>Download your FREE Cheltenham Festival Guide HERE
Now for this week’s three one to follow…
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Three One to follow from the weekend: 16th, 17th & 18th February…
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THE KING OF RYHOPE (D Skelton)
4th in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase – 1.50 Ascot (Saturday 17th)
Looked like he was coming there with a strong challenge as they entered the straight, but he just couldn’t sustain his forward momentum when push came to shove.
I actually wonder if he’s one that needs the pace of a big field to run in behind to show his best… with his field splits reading…
3334 (0/4, 0p) in fields of 7 or less
2131 (2/4, 2p) in fields of 8+
…and with that in mind he could be interesting in a big field handicap at one of the Spring Festivals, possibly the 3m1f Handicap at Aintree that the Skelton’s won last year with MIDNIGHT RIVER…
The yards overall record in that race reads…
123347 (1/6, 4p)
…and THE KING OF RYHOPE looks a likely candidate for that contest… even more so when you consider both his wins to date have come on Good to Soft ground (the Aintree race has only been run on Softer than G/S twice in the last 21 renewals)…
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Cheers – Ben (NTF)
It is no surprise to see the poor strike-rate of runners at last weekends meetings when they go on to race at the Festival. Like a lot of people, I’ve produced my own statistical analysis of winners/runners at the Festival going back to 2001 and the optimum time for the LTO run is in the period between Boxing Day and Valentines Day (14th Feb). Horses that run after 14th Feb and then race at the Festival generally don’t do well (as you have confirmed). There are a couple of races that don’t fall into this category, but I will keep that to myself. At the other end of the scale, horses that run on the final weekend before the Festival, and run well, can and do follow-up in one of the handicaps.
With Threeunderthrufive winning, the form of Broadway Boy was given a boost: if he gets an easy lead at the Festival he could take some beating.
Hi Ian
Yeah as a generally rule last week just falls after the ideal prep time window for the Cheltenham Festival closes, just seems to cut it too fine… plenty of stats around optimum LTO run as well as a hot zone for number of seasonal starts prior to Cheltenham…
Threeunderthrufive winning certainly was a good boost for Broadway Boy… same with Rapper following him home on second (Rapper came 4th behind Broadway B and 3underthru5 at Cheltenham in December)…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Hope Dixie is in good fettle Ben
Dixie looked in great shape Bill, excellent shape in fact, I was impressed, seriously impressed 😀
Still needs some fine-tuning on the track I suspect but he looks a very well put together individual I have to admit…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Just checked it’s 30 years since Balasani, Mysilv, Monsieur Le Cure and Antonin won at Kempton and the festival, Jazilah missed Cheltenham and won at Aintree, Master Oats won the 95 GC
Hi Charlie
Yeah, been a long time now since that lot and plenty of horses head to the Festival with it being by far their main focus of the season… and they are generally going there without having a tough race in the 20-30 days prior to the Festival…
Ben (NTF)