NTF Munster National Analysis: The Dosage & Trends Assault!

The Munster National.

Like it’s Kerry National dance partner it’s again one of those early season races that isn’t quite strong enough to add to the full NTF subscription service but does serve it’s own purpose for me in that I can use it to get my eye in for the season ahead.

This is also one of those races where Dosage doesn’t, unfortunately, give me much of a helping hand. The range of previous winners profiles is such that I won’t be relying on the Dosage side of things as much as I usually would.

That doesn’t mean, however, that I can’t plunge deep into the race using the trends side of things (whilst still using the Dosage as a bit of pedigree foreplay to set the scene) .

I’m not one for chopping up my stakes too much on the punting side of things but at this very early stage of the season I would again be ratcheting things down just a touch. It’s a race I enjoy analyzing from a Trends perspective (and to a lesser extent Dosage), as it helps get my eye back into the jumping game for the coming weeks (when the full NTF service will be engaging first gear), but I don’t need to be firing my usual load at my selections, I’ll keep myself on a tight-ish reign for a week or two yet, hoping to cruise up on the bridle and sneak a few shekels profit here and there.

You can download the full Munster National analysis guide below…

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As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

If, however, you just want to see what I’m backing my own personal selections are below…

Shortlist

A DECENT EXCUSE – 10/11 – N/R

THE PAPARRAZI KID – 10/11

RAVISHED – 10/11

SADLERS RISK – 10/11

URANO – 9/11

THE JOB IS RIGHT – 9/11

DUSHREMBRANDT – 9/11 – N/R

SHANPALLAS – 9/11

 

Most likely winner

THE PAPARRAZI KID (W Mullins) – This Limerick specialist (3 from 3 at track) still looks feasibly handicapped on OR 145. He travelled well for a long way last time out in the Kerry National put the front 3 just got away from him in the closing stages on that flatter track. He’s a horse that enjoys these large fields (form of 21031124 in 14+ runner fields), runs well when returning within 30 days of his last run (2213131) and should go well in this.

Alternative (s)

RAVISHED (M Morris) – I think it’s worth forgiving this one his last two below-par efforts. Both those runs were on testing ground and although he did win on such ground over hurdles his best chase form has come on better conditions. Ger Fox’s 3lb claim puts him only 3lbs above his last winning mark (in the Midlands National at Kilbeggan in July) and that could still be within his reach given he is still only a 7yo with relatively few (11) chase starts in the bank.

I’m also tempted by URANO (W Mullins) after picking up E/W spoils from him at Listowel last time out and may have him as cover in this. I do have a niggle, however, that he wants it like a bog underfoot to be at his absolute best.

Best of luck if you are getting involved today

Ben (NTF)

p.s.

The full NTF service got off to a cracking start yesterday with figures topper DROP OUT JOE romping to success at Chepstow.

Grab your slot on the service today…

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