NTF Kerry National Analysis: The Dosage & Trends Assault!
Aaah, The Kerry National.
The Seduction point of Listowel’s seven day festival.
The beast of a race that gives me plenty of each-way returns but continues to elude me on the win part of my punts.
18 runners are set to go to post for this year’s renewal and I’ve ripped into the race with my tried and tested Dosage and Trends analysis.
It’s a fiendishly tricky race to nail, in my opinion, and you have to accept the fact that your selection(s) could well be hung out with the washing long before the climax of the contest is reached. However, I’m not one to shirk from such challenges and I’m happy to roll the dice and fire into my own selections, there is enough juice in their prices to hopefully pick up the place money at least.
I’m not one for chopping up my stakes too much on the punting side of things but at this very early stage of the season I would be ratcheting things down just a touch. It’s a race I love analyzing from a Dosage and Trends perspective, as it helps get my eye back into the jumping game for next month, but I don’t need to be firing my usual load at my selections, I’ll keep myself on a tight-ish reign until mid-October swings into view.
You can download the full analysis guide from the following link…
Kerry National Full Analysis Guide
As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.
If, however, you just want to see what I’m backing my own personal selections are below…
Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 16)
BALNASLOW – 15/16
SHANPALLAS – 14/16
YOUR BUSY – 13/16
HEANEY – 13/16
KLEPHT – 13/16
TOM HORN – 13/16
Most likely winner
BALNASLOW (W Mullins) – Connections have always though this lad had a decent pot in him and I would tend to agree with them. Three miles on Good ground could well be his optimum and he certainly seems to have been finding the 2m5f/6f trips of recent races just a bit too sharp. He finished a decent 4th in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham in the spring but didn’t quite see his race out up the hill and this flat 3 miles should suit him much better. His young claiming jockey rode him to a decent staying on 3rd in the Galway Plate in July and his 5lb claim could be extremely handy today. Balnaslow has only finished out of the places once in six starts on Good ground and I would be hopeful of at least a place today.
Alternative(s)
SHANPALLAS (C Byrnes) – This 6-Y-O is another who will appreciate the Good ground with all 3 of his career wins coming on such a surface (form of 111O8). He is also retuning within his bring rest period of 21 – 49 days (all 3 of his career wins have come in that period) and he should be suited by this step up in trip.
KLEPHT (T Mullins) – Has clearly been saved and primed for this race for some time. He’s yet to try 3 miles but it looks within his range and his jockey Paul Townend is pulling together a fine record on the horse (17041). The ground will suit him well (form of 161) and it will be no surprise to see him go close.
Best of luck if you are getting involved today.
Ben (NTF)
Your analysis was excellent.
I had a quid on Your Busy. At the time it was only first reserve, hence
the miserly investment. I didn’t think it would run.
I’ve been doing well on your Prestcott stuff, showing a profit, esp.,
William of Orange!
Great stuff John, fantastic.
This race is becoming a tad annoying with the reserves (3rd year in a row 1 has won!) but at least you had something on it, great return for a small investment.
Glad you’ve been profiting from the Prescott stuff as well. Started slowly this year due to illness in yard but has certainly picked back up again now.
Cheers – Ben (NTF)