NTF 1 to follow from the weekend: Jazz gets the Blues when it’s too quick…

It has been a bit quiet on the blogging front for me of late as the relocating from sunny Scotland to (hopefully!) even sunnier England-shire seems to have been consuming plenty of my time.

I was, however, glad to hear that plenty of you jumped on NTF trend horse IMPERIAL DJAY at Chester on Saturday. A nice little earner for you from a horse that loves to be out on the track. There will be more FREE NTF guides to subscribers to the free list throughout the summer (to join simply pop your name and email in the form on the right >>>).

There was a mountain of racing taking place this weekend and as usual I was keeping an eye out for any ‘under the radar’ runners that may be worth putting in our notebooks. Here is my main NTF to follow horse from this weekend –

BLUES JAZZ (I Semple) – Saturday – 4.05 Haydock – 8th in the 6f Class 4 Handicap

Race comments for this lad read – “Soon well outpaced and in rear, headway 2f out, kept on, eased towards finish“. Jockey Dale Swift certainly eased up a touch once he realised the win or even place finish was out of the question and as such I would be willing to mark this run up a couple of notches.

It is no surprise the 6yo found himself slightly outpaced once the gates had opened as the lightning fast underfoot conditions (officially described as FIRM) would hardly have been ideal. A quick look at his form tells us what ground is his ideal –

Form on GOOD ground – 7-1-4-4-1-1-1-1

Form on GOOD TO SOFT – 0-1-3-8

Form on other Going (including A/W) – 8-0-0-0-8

GOOD underfoot conditions are clearly his optimum and if there are plenty of other aspects in his favour then GOOD TO SOFT also becomes a consideration.

There is also a train of thought that he is now possibly more a 7f horse (or even further) than a 6f horse with his best RPR figure at 7f (87) being 6lbs higher than his best RPR at 6f (81). This again may equate for his running style on Saturday of ‘outpaced early before staying on’ when the race developed into the closing stages.

He is also a horse that has been showing a strong bias towards the Scottish air and a quick look at his record at 2 of the north tracks tells where he feels most at home –

Form at AYR – 1-1

Form at HAMILTON – 1-4-1-1

5 of his 6 career victories have come at these 2 tracks and it is interesting to note that the only time he met with defeat was when he raced over 5 furlongs and he was again outpaced early before staying on strongly to the line.

He currently sits on a mark of 80 and there is a feeling this may be very near (if not above) the ceiling of his abilities although it should be noted that he ran 3rd off this mark 3 runs ago at Redcar and in the process equalled his best RPR figure. He is still fairly lightly raced with 17 runs under his belt so there may still be a smidgen of improvement still to come from him although the gut feeling is he may need to drop a couple more lbs in the handicap to get back to winning ways. We will maybe know more about his mark if he runs off it at one of his favourite tracks Ayr or Hamilton.

To my eyes he ran better than the form book suggests at Haydock on Saturday on conditions that were unlikely to suit and if trainer Ian Semple finds a race for him at Ayr of Hamilton then it may well be worth having an interest.

BLUES JAZZ ideal conditions – Good Ground | 7f or 8f | Ideally at Ayr or Hamilton | *Keep an eye on his handicap mark

Warning: A mini angle that shouldn’t be overlooked! – Revisited

Just a quick look back at an angle I highlighted to you guys back at the start of April – The Smullen/Weld Mini Irish Angle

At the time I called it a ‘A simple yet mightily effective mini angle’ and so far it has been ticking away just nicely.

Since I highlighted the angle it has returned the following set of figures –

4 winners | 12 runners | 33% S/R | +£7.33 BFLSP | 61% BFROI

This simple angle does not highlight a huge amount of qualifiers but it does fire at a regular rate and most importantly it is profitable.

If you missed it first time around or just want a refresher then please take a look back at the original post –

>>> NTF Weld/Smullen Mini Irish Angle

Imperial Racing/Willie Amos yard visit

As some of you may have heard me mention on Twitter or Facebook I was kindly invited along to Willie Amos’s yard this weekend by the guys behind the Imperial Racing Club, Ian Robinson and Paul Costello.

There will be a report up on the blog later on in the week but to give you a taste of the magnificent setting at Willie’s yard just take a look at the following picture –

Acres and acres or rolling hills to get the horses exceedingly fit when in training and for them to relax in when out at grass; simply an outstanding part of the world.

Ben – (NTF)