Four to follow from the 2025 Cheltenham Festival…
The 2025 Cheltenham Festival…
MAJBOROUGH ❌
CONSTITUTION HILL ❌
BALLYBURN ❌
JONBON ❌
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS ❌
…ALL beaten at odds-on!
It was quite the festival… 😲
And that’s without mentioning the multiple false starts (which I’ve covered plenty in my full notes guide), STATE MAN coming down at the last with his second Champion Hurdle staring him right in the face, Gordon Elliott taking until the VERY LAST RACE to get a winner on the board… and, of course, Michael O’Sullivan’s two previous Festival winners – MARINE NATIONALE & JAZZY MATTY – scoring back to back on the Wednesday… I’m not much a fan of the ‘you couldn’t write this script…‘ saying… but, you know, MARINE NATIONALE & JAZZY MATTY… well… you just couldn’t write that script… 😊
So yeah… the 2025 Cheltenham Festival… it was quite the festival!
Now the dust has settled (sort of!) for another year here’s my usual post-festival eh… post… cherry picking a horse to follow from each day of the meeting… taken, as always, from the in-depth notes that I recently posted to full NTF Members… notes that, for the first time, you can also get your hands on…
Four to follow from the 2025 Cheltenham Festival…
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⬛⬜ TRANSMISSION (N Mulholland)
5th in the National Hunt Challenge Cup – Tuesday 11th
I’m not a fan of Patrick Mullins at Cheltenham in chases/hurdles NOT restricted to amateur riders… he’s now 2/68 in such races at the track and 0/56 at the festival… so I wasn’t surprised by this defeat… but he’s not a horse to give up on as he’s likely still got more to offer over fences, this being only his 5th Chase start and only his 2nd in a Handicap Chase…
Assuming Patrick Mullins doesn’t ride him next time out TRANSMISSION would fit the following…
Ridden by P Mullins LTO at Cheltenham in a Chase or Hurdle (NOT restricted to Amateur jockey’s) | DSLR 56 or less | NOT ridden by P Mullins this time = 10/22, 7p | +£11.69 (E/W = +£20.56)
…and a jockey upgrade on his next start could well see an improved run from the 8yo.
TRANSMISSION holds good form under the following conditions…
3m+ | C2 or less = 5212112 (3/7, 3p – all 3 career wins)
…although I’m open enough about his Prime Conditions right now and would still be flexible, to a certain extent, with him…
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⬜🟥 POTTERS CHARM (N Twiston-Davies)
5th in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle – Wednesday 12th
Twiston-Davies has done well with this one so far and he’s not a trainer that runs that many in this race, which probably hints at the fact NTD rates him pretty highly (no surprise given he’s already banged in a G1 and a G2 over Hurdles). He’s run the likes of Fundamentalist, Imperial Commander, Double Ross, The New One and Master Chewy in this previously and it would be no surprise if this one were to, at the very least, get near the level of the best of that bunch.
The record of the previous 10 horses Nigel Twiston-Davies has run in this race on their next two starts reads…
814P21236F31P1624111 (7/20, 5p)
…and it’s well worth looking out to see where this one appears on his next 2 starts…
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🟧⬛ PERSONAL AMBITION (B Pauling)
PU in the Plate Handicap Chase – Thursday 13th
Was the most disadvantaged by the standing start… he likes to be prominent in his races but was caught the widest of all here as the tapes went up and was also slightly on his heels, and he had to use up a bit of petrol early on to get himself up near the pace… that meant he was always just going half a step too quick and as such his jumping never got into any sort of rhythm… I’d be happy to put a line through this effort and he still rates as a well-handicapped horse off his OR 137 mark…
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🟦⬜ DERRYHASSEN PADDY (L Russell)
3rd in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – Friday 14th
This capped off a fine season of novice hurdling for the imposing 6yo and he looks an exciting prospect for fences next season…
This is only the second horse Lucinda Russell has ever run in this race, the other being 2012 winner BRINDISI BREEZE, who also came in with an unbeaten Hurdles record… sadly we never got to see Brindisi Breeze on the track again but it maybe shows how highly they rate this one, being that he’s only the second horses they’ve ever run in ANY G1 Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival…
Worth noting that he’s by ARCTIC COSMOS and his offspring tend to take a run to find their feet over fences, with stats for ARCTIC COSMOS offspring on chase debut reading… 0/39, 7p… which we can view a couple of ways…
Should DERRYHASSEN PADDY get beat on chase debut then it’s nothing to worry about, he’s just following the same trajectory that all his sire’s kids do over fences… on the other hand, should he WIN on Chase debut we could be looking at a VERY high class chase prospect in the making, as he would be doing something none of the other offspring had so far managed to do (WIN on Chase debut)…
Full NTF 2025 Cheltenham Festival Notes…
The above four horses have been taken from the FULL NTF members guide…
The guide stretches to 17-pages of info, stats, trends, pointers, angles and opinions, covering a whopping 59-horses… and includes…
Prime Conditions for specific horses
Next Time Out stats, pointers and angles for individual races
Trainer Stats, Sire Stats, Jockey Stats
Which races were most impacted by the starts
And much more…
Grab your copy HERE>>>
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
p.s. Make sure you don’t miss out on any future NTF posts and offers by hooking up the free mailing list below…
>>>sign-up to the free NTF mailing list here
…I’ll have some Aintree Festival stats posted out to people on the free list at some point in the next week or so…
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Get all previous NTF Blog Posts HERE>>>
Never liked Patrick Mullins as a jockey. He’s a daddies boy.
A daddies boy, love it 😄😁 he certainly gets the leg up on horses that are way better than his talents deserve him to… guess there has to be some perks to having Willie Mullins as your dad though…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Just downloaded a a copy of the Cheltenham notes
Worth every penny of a £5 Thank Ben
Amazing work
Cheers Graham, much appreciated my friend 😊
Many thanks for taking the time to purchase the Cheltenham notes and glad you enjoyed them, top man 👍
Ben (NTF)
Hi Ben, I’ve also purchased your Festival Notes for a Fiver. Going back over the results is a must, as the Festival is one of those events which is so individual that form acquired there is worth a lot more than elsewhere. I never had a penny on him, but Bob Olinger is now 3 from 3 at the Festival – who knew, eh?
Many winners bucked the trends, but that’s because they’re trends not facts. But the trends will come back with a vengeance.
All the best, Ian @ Wayward Lad
Thanks for purchasing a copy of the Notes Ian 👍
Absolutely agree that it is an absolute MUST to go back over the results at Cheltenham… time after time so many of the races work out strongly… in weeks, months and even years to come…
And 100% right with the trends… there more good years than bad years on the trends… but they have quiet years every now and again and always important to remember that they are best as a guide and a way to ‘narrow the field’ rather than relying stone cold on them 👍
Bob Olinger… some boy! 4 from 4 at the track… 3 of them at the Festival as you say… fair play to him 😎👏
Cheers – Ben (NTF)