Climbing the Hill to secure August & September jumping profits…
The National Hunt game resumes normal service tomorrow at Fontwell and Stratford after it’s yearly sabbatical and, naturally, some yards will be closer to peak form than others.
We all know about ‘Twister Season’ (or you should if you downloaded the the recent FREE NTF guide) so today I want to highlight another trainer that excels at this stage of the campaign.
In recent seasons the months of August and September have been a healthy source of profits for followers of the Lawney Hill yard. Since 2006 the Aston Rowant based trainer has recorded the following figures in the months of August and September –
21/75 | 28% S/R | +£64.40 BFLSP – Win & Place – 31/75 | 41% S/R
Lawney Hill would not have the largest squad amongst the National Hunt ranks but she does know how to place her runners to their best advantage, especially as the season’s turn from Summer into Autumn.
If we take a look at Lawney Hill’s monthly figures since 2006 we can see that there are clear pointers indicating that these two months are indeed her ‘Hot Months’ –
*Figures sourced from the excellent Proform Database
|
Month |
Runners |
Winners |
Win S/R % |
P/L Betfair |
ROI Betfair |
Win & Plc |
Win & Plc S/R % |
|
Jan |
38 |
6 |
16% |
-0.94 |
-2.49 |
12 |
32% |
|
Feb |
36 |
0 |
0% |
-36 |
-100 |
1 |
3% |
|
Mar |
45 |
9 |
20% |
119.39 |
265.3 |
14 |
31% |
|
Apr |
37 |
7 |
19% |
0.21 |
0.57 |
13 |
35% |
|
May |
52 |
10 |
19% |
67.34 |
129.49 |
19 |
37% |
|
Jun |
40 |
6 |
15% |
35.02 |
87.56 |
18 |
45% |
|
Jul |
69 |
12 |
17% |
-7.98 |
-11.56 |
26 |
38% |
|
Aug |
44 |
13 |
30% |
52.85 |
120.1 |
17 |
39% |
|
Sep |
35 |
8 |
23% |
7.55 |
21.58 |
14 |
40% |
|
Oct |
46 |
4 |
9% |
-12.37 |
-26.88 |
14 |
30% |
|
Nov |
51 |
6 |
12% |
2.16 |
4.24 |
19 |
37% |
|
Dec |
27 |
1 |
4% |
-24.57 |
-91.02 |
8 |
30% |
The strike-rates for the Hill runners take a healthy up-turn in these two months and as shrewd punters we need to make sure we are in a position to benefit from the yards strong months.
*It is also prudent that we take note of that poor showing in February. Does something happen to her runners at that stage of the season? Is it Flu-jab time like it is at the Paul Nicholls yard? Something to watch out for anyway….
Taking a closer look at the overall figures tells me there are a few areas we should be homing in on in the coming weeks to bolster profits…
- Her runners at Worcester should command our full attention – Since 2006 she has sent 11 runners to the track and 6 of them have won (a 55% Strike-Rate!), providing a level stakes profit of +£59.07 in the process; clearly this is a track she likes to target with her August/September runners.
- Her Chasers bring home the tastiest bacon – A quick scan of the figures make it very obvious that it is her chasers that we should be paying plenty of attention to. They have won 16 races from 41 starts for a 39% S/R and a scrumptious +£28.37 level stakes profit.
- Jockey Aidan Coleman has a superb record when teaming up with the trainer at this stage of the season – The money-spinning figures for this period are 10/21 | 48% S/R | +£32.65 BFLSP – Win and Place 12/21 | 57% S/R
- Interestingly if we merge the two angles above – Aidan Coleman on a Lawney Hill Chaser in Aug/Sept – we get an extremely eye-catching mini-angle – 8/13 | 62% S/R | +£18.62 BFLSP – Win & Place 10/13 | 77% S/R
- There is also an intriguining angle developing with regards to the age trends – If we look at the Lawney Hill runners that are aged 6, 7 or 8 only we get an extremely strong set of figures – 19/52 | 37% S/R | +£75.46 BFLSP – Win & Place 27/52 | 52% S/R. At this stage, however, I would say this is something to monitor rather than rely heavily upon.
There is still plenty of juice to be squeezed from the jumping game at this stage of the season and we can certainly make our in-depth research pay-off. It also pays to familiarize yourself with trainer traits as plenty of yards have shown time and time again that they are creatures of habit, the great thing is most of them don’t even know they are doing it!
Until next time, Happy ‘summer’ Punting!
p.s If you want to get your hands on my stat packed ‘Twister Season’ guide then simply sign up to the FREE NTF service (form at the top of the site) and you will be sent a link to download the 14 page guide absolutely FREE!
Ben – (NTF)
You are so right about trainers trends . I find the uncle ernie annual trainer guides invaluable .
Also worth noting is Mrs Hill’s figures in Bumpers, with a 600% ROI!! That’s two winners from five starts 🙂
Interestting, Thanks.
Unfortunately, this angle has not worked out at all in 2012 (Even if there is one day left of September, I can’t see it being turned around).
I was looking at all of Lawney Hill’s Chasers and Bumper runners, disregarding the Hurlders, as per the angle point made above. For 2012, from August 15th when this angle was posted:
August – 6 runners for no winners.
September – 6 runners for 1 winner.
The one winner was Baily Storm at Market Rasen on September 1st. SP was 8/1, so certainly not enough to cover other losers.
The above figures are only for NH Chases and Bumpers. If you include flat races (e.g. There was a runner at Wolverhampton on September 13th) and hurdles as well the overall picture is worse.
For all runners, both NH and Flat:
August – 15 runners for no winners (I’ve included from August 1st)
September – 12 runners for 1 winner (Baily Storm)
However, this year it would seem that July was the month to be on Lawney Hill’s runners:
July 2012 – 18 runners for 4 winners. Of these, 9 runners were in Chases, for 3 winners.
As can be seen, the Lawney Hill August-September angle has not worked out in 2012.
Perhaps the weather can be blamed, as most people seem to be doing for racing’s ills this year, although I can’t help but wonder if the above figures show the peril of working with data sets which are small, meaning slight variations have big impacts.
Hi SK
No disappointingly the angle did not come to fruition this year. Sometimes, however, you do need to try and latch on to an angle whilst it is developing, which obviously means working with slightly smaller data sets than would be ideal.
Taking a closer look at her runners during this period it is interesting to note that a number of them ran very well up to point then flattened out when push came to shove (the in-running figures show a distinct shortening of the odds during the race). Does this maybe suggest they were slightly lacking in ideal fitness? As you mentioned she could have been one of the trainers that has been struggling with the weather and has been unable to get her squad to the same level that she usual has during this time?
I agree small data sets are not always ideal but sometimes you have to take a calculated risk in an attempt to latch on to what you may conceive as being a developing trend.
Of course all risks will not pay off and you have to be willing to be wrong to be right in this game…
Ben (NTF)