2017 Kerry National Analysis: The NTF Trends Assault!

Kerry National time…

And it rolls round once again…

The Kerry National from Listowel…

18 runners set to slog it out through the mud at 4.05pm today in search of the lucrative 100k+ pot.

As usual I’ve ripped into the race and put it through my tried and trusted NTF Trends Analysis as I try yet again to nail the winner of this tricky b@st@rd of a race!

It took me a while to finally land this race. I’ve been covering it on the free NTF Blog for a number of years and although I pulled in no end of each-way returns the winners eluded me…until last year that is! At last I landed the full booty! The full shebang! The big dog! Winner, winner chicken dinner and all that jazz!

Indeed it was the 1-2 I landed last year, just rewards I feel for the near misses I had suffered in the preceding 3 or 4 years. The agony of being so near yet so far…

Don’t get me wrong, I was more than happy with consistently landing the E/W spoils, it’s as good a barometer as any that the trends were doing a fine job, but there’s nothing like nailing the winners of the big races, especially the staying chases, cheering home your selection(s) as they reach the business end after a couple of circuits of jumping action, pinging away and devouring the fences before making a winning move turning for home…man you can’t beat that feeling in sport, you just can’t!

To be fair I’m a sucker for a National anyway and this race in particular is one I cherish, one I really look forward to. It’s another of those checks on my list that tell me the jumps is fast approaching, that’s when I come alive, that’s what I bloody live for!!

Win, lose or draw (unlikely, admittedly!) today, this is an important race for me. It’s the race that properly awakens the jumping side of my brain. It’s fires up the National Hunt race analysis zone in my coupon (head to those of you not familiar with that term!) that’s been sitting dormant since the Swinton Hurdle in May. I suspect I become a better person to live with as well for the next few months (although you best check with Mrs NTF for clarification on that, she may well disagree!!) as there is nothing better for me than knowing I have hundreds of races to cover for NTF members as of the middle of next month. And again, this race is a vital cog in that wheel, regardless of the outcome. I suppose it’s like my pre-season, the time to get my eye back in, time to make sure I’m match fit for the middle of October…although saying that I do treat this race like all my other analysis races…and that’s deadly serious! No half-measures here!!

…well maybe half-measures on the punting side of things! I’m not one for chopping up my stakes too much (or at all really) on the punting side of things, except at this very early stage of the season. At this stage I would be ratcheting things down just a touch. The Kerry National is a race I love analyzing from a Trends perspective, as, again, it helps get my eye back into the jumping game for next month, but I don’t need to be shooting my usual load at my selections, I’ll keep myself on a tight-ish reign until mid-October swings into view.

It’s primarily a range-finder for me. A race to get the old National Hunt cogs oiled up and ready for the long hard season ahead. Get some markers down if you will.

How you play the race is up to yourself but to help you on your way you can download the full NTF analysis guide from the following link…

>>>Kerry National full NTF Analysis Guide

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As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

If, however, you just want to see what I’m backing my own personal selections are below…

Shortlist…

POTTERS POINT – 12/12

SHANPALLAS – 12/12

BENTELIMAR – 11/12

BAY OF FREEDOM – 11/12

ARKWRISHT – 11/12

HASH BROWN (Res) – 11/12

Conclusion/Selection(s)

POTTERS POINT (G Elliott) – The 7yo comes here off a career best effort at Tramore last time out and the 4lbs raise for that win (which looked lenient enough anyway) is offset by Lisa O’Neill’s 5lb claim today. 3m is unknown territory for him but given how well he won over 2m6f LTO I don’t see it being an issue and although connections seem to have reservations over the ground there are pieces of form on his CV that suggests cut underfoot shouldn’t be a hindrance (placed on all 4 starts on soft).  1ST

BAY OF FREEDOM (P Fahey) – Track form (3-1), Heavy ground form (1-1), Autumn form (3-1-1-1 in Sept & Oct) and an unexposed chase profile as well as a mark that looks well within range for him make this one very appealing indeed. He’s actually 0/4 over the 3m trip but I’d say there are excuses for those efforts and given that he’s won well over 2m6f & 2m7f (both over fences) I really don’t see the distance as an issue. The fact he’s also able to attack the heavy ground off a lowly weight is an added plus. 3RD

ARKWRISHT (J O’Brien) – This is another who brings a progressive profile to the race and also comes in off a career best effort after an 11L victory at Kilbeggan last month. His opening handicap mark of 131 looks lenient especially given the fact he was rated a 138 hurdler at his peak and has always been considered a chaser in the making. He’ll handle the Heavy ground easily (form of 4-1-1) and he’s also at his best when returning off breaks of 31 days or less (117U8712 – 224744U3 off longer breaks). He needs to sharpen his jumping up to take this but he is improving with each effort and he’s an interesting outsider. 2ND

RESULT: 1st – Potters Point | 2nd – Arkwrisht | 3rd – Bay Of Freedom

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Best of luck if you are getting involved today.

Ben (NTF)

p.s. There will be numerous free guides and posts heading out to members of the NTF free list over the coming weeks so if your not on that list make sure you get your name on there by using the form on the following page…

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