It can pay to be blinkered when it comes to McCain and Maguire…
Result from Tuesday 17-01-12 – 3.10 Ayr | 1st – TOTAL REBELLION | sp 16/1
The horse’s previous rules form was a rather average 8-0-0-0 and yesterday he was making his handicap debut.
What was notable about him yesterday? He had been fitted with first time blinkers.
Those of you that were on my flat service during last summer will be well aware of my opinion on horses running when fitted with blinkers for the first time; generally they have an adverse effect and most of the time they do not produce the desired result.
However, you will also be aware that I’m not someone to take an angle and just blindly follow it. I like to look deeper and yesterdays win by TOTAL REBELLION had me firing up my PROFORM software for a bit of much loved ‘angle digging’.
The McCain ‘blinkered first time’ angle had been floating about in my head for some time before yesterday and although I’m not exactly sure what it was that made me finally take a closer look (possibly the rather tasty SP of yesterdays winner!) but when the stats popped up in front of me I’m certainly glad I did!
I wanted to take a look at the McCain horses that had run wearing first time blinkers since the start of 2009 (to my mind that’s when the stable really started to purr) and specifically I wanted to see the figures when stable jockey Jason Maguire was on-board these animals.
Here is what my *Proform digging returned –
Donald McCain 1st time blinker wearers – ridden by Jason Maguire (2009 – present)
10/24 | 42% S/R | +£22.79 BFLSP | ROI 95%
Obviously yesterdays healthily priced winner helps the LSP figures but the 42% S/R for these types of animals is nothing if not impressive.
To bolster this impressive stat let me add this – The last FIVE qualifiers on this ‘mini-angle’ have all won! In fact if we look only from the start of 2011 then we have 6 winners from 10 qualifiers.
Looking at these figures got me thinking – “Does a horse need a certain kind of jockey to give him confidence from the saddle when wearing blinkers for the first time?” and “Is Jason Maguire an expert at giving the horse that confidence?”.
I expanded the search to look at other McCain 1st time blinker wearers in the same time frame when NOT ridden by Jason Maguire. Here is what my finding told me –
26 runners | 1 winner | 4% S/R | -£22.85 BFLSP
1 solitary winner from 26 rides when not ridden by Maguire compared to 10 winners from 24 rides when Maguire is on-board; quite a difference!
Either McCain is confident the blinkers will improve certain horses more than others and wants his main man on-board or Maguire simply has the golden touch.
It could of course be a mix of both…..
It goes without saying the sample size is small but nevertheless it’s something I’ll be keeping in mind in the coming months, if not years……
*My PROFORM database allows me to access this info within seconds. Thoroughly recommended by NTF 🙂
Ben (NTF)
Interesting findings. What is Maguires general record on horses wearing first time blinkers for any trainer?
Hi Richard
He only hs dribs and drabs of these types for other trainers so its hard to make a judgment. It’s most likely a combo of both trainer and jockey that make the angle one to follow, both adding their own expertise; McCain not throwing blinkers on any old horse and Maguire riding it in a way that gives it confidence to perform with the first time headgear.
Thanks for comment
Ben (NTF)
Interesting article by Nick Mordin in today’s ‘Weekender’ on the subject of blinkers too
Hi Peter
Only rarely purchase the Weekender (local shop doesn’t stock it), will try and grab a look somewhere.
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Hi Ben,
The blinkered horses that did not win out of the 10 qualifiers,how many
were place and at what prices
Malcolm
Hi Malcolm
There was actually only 1 other placed, price was 6/1. However if we look at the year before my sample (2008, just when McCain was starting to make his own name) he had 5 qualifiers with 4 placed, priced at 7/2, 5/1, 6/1 and 12/1.
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
to ben
interesting will take on board ive also noted when j.maguire rides for kim bailey he as clocked up some good price winners might need some filters to see if it can be improved on
regards ron.g
Hi Ron
Yes the Maguire/ Bailey combo are a good one to follow. A good angle to keep an eye on for them is looking at their runners over 2m5f or less, has been profitable in recent seasons, around a 25% S/R from a decent sample size (over 100 qualifiers).
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Sammy Spiderman…. Ayr | Class 4 Chase | soft or heavy ground | 9 or less runners | running from a mark similar to what he is on now (85)
Hi Ben were conditions not spot on for Sammy Spiderman at the same meeting yesterday ?
Regards Carl
Hi Carl
Ayr was Good to Soft yesterday, Sammy needs at least soft ground to be effective, heavy is ideal but should act on soft if everything else in place. The winner managed to accelerate away from Sammy at a vital point yesterday, he doesn’t really have the gears to go with a move like that on good to soft. Almost ideal for him yesterday but the ground stopped it being a bet. Decent run from The Spiderman though and he stays in the notebook with hope that they can find a soft/heavy ground Ayr chase for him soon….
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Hi Ben,
I have been following first time head gear for a while, and have noticed that the added mixture with topspeed and either top 3 jockey for stable or claiming jockey seem to do quite well, seems to work on AW aswell… also horses having first run since being gelded appear to do well with top stable jockey, might be worth a bit more investigation
Points noted. Will have a dig about when I get time.
Many thanks 🙂
Ben (NTF)