NTF Munster National Analysis: The Dosage & Trends Assault!
The Munster National.
One of those early season races that isn’t quite strong enough to add to the full NTF service but does serve it’s own purpose for me in that I can use it to get my eye in for the season ahead.
This is also one of those races where Dosage doesn’t, unfortunately, give me much of a helping hand. The range of previous winners profiles is such that I won’t be relying on the Dosage side of things as much as I usually would.
That doesn’t mean, however, that I can’t plunge deep into the race using the trends side of things.
I’m not one for chopping up my stakes too much on the punting side of things but at this very early stage of the season I would be ratcheting things down just a touch. It’s a race I enjoy analyzing from a Trends perspective (and to a lesser extent Dosage), as it helps get my eye back into the jumping game for next week (when the full NTF service will be engaging first gear), but I don’t need to be firing my usual load at my selections, I’ll keep myself on a tight-ish reign until next weekend.
You can download the full analysis guide from the following link…
>>Munster National Full Analysis Guide
As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.
If, however, you just want to see what I’m backing my own personal selections are below…
Shortlist
BACK OFF MATE – 11/12
ROHANS PRIDE – 10/12
HEANEY – 10/12
SHANPALLAS – 10/12
Most likely winner
BACK OFF MATE (A Moore) – This lightly raced chaser looks on a very handy mark here and is completely unexposed over 3 miles; a trip his pedigree suggests should be well within his range. Right-handed could be imperative to this youngster as all 4 career wins have come this way round and he is 0/5 the other way round. He also seems to come alive during the Aug/Sept/Nov period (25112221) and there is every chance the shrewd Arthur Moore has had this valuable pot in mind for some time.
Alternative (s)
HEANEY (T Taaffe) – This 7-Y-O finished a decent fifth in this race last year and is able to run this time around from a 3lb lower mark. He was going as good as any in last year renewal but an awkward jump two out checked his momentum and the others were able to get away from him. Since then he has run a decent 6th in the Irish National, where he was probably given just a little bit too much to do from out the back. 3 miles is bang ideal for him (311315P), he has strong form in October (51315), 4 of his 5 wins have come on undulating tracks and on right-handed tracks and he is returning within his prime rest period of 16 – 60 days (5/12 during that time frame, 0/10 after other break periods).
I’m tempted by SHANPALLAS (C Byrne) after picking up E/W spoils from him at Listowel last time out and may have him as cover in this. I was, however, a little concerned by his jumping last time out.
Best of luck if you are getting involved today
Ben (NTF)
Excellent analysis as usual, for what its worth on my ratings both Shanpallas and Back Off Mate recorded their best ratings last time out both are lightly raced and open to improvement.
On my ratings Shanpallas looks a good thing, dropped in class and only up 3ibs I still have him 3ibs well in on the Kerry National running.
Back Off Mate has more on his plate on my ratings but such improvement is certainly likely and as you have highlighted is spot on trend wise.
Heaney looks a big danger if getting his act together and is well handicapped on his running in this race last year, which on my figures was a stronger race than today’s running. He is 3ib lower today and on my ratings 4ibs well in.
Cheers Sean
Would be far from a strong race on my methods but well worth a dabble.
I have to admit I’ve been tempted by Shanpallas and took a slice of him, bigger than I expected him to be.
I like Heaney plenty and I agree last years race looked a stronger renewal. Have to assume he just wasn’t right last time out.
Best of luck mate – Ben (NTF)
You make a decent case for Heaney so I’m on EW and backed off the other one, mate.
Good luck Chris
Have to forgive Heaney a poor run last time out but he’s a value play regardless of the outcome.
Ben (NTF)
Hey Ben 1st and 4th from your short list excellent as usual, hope you made a few quid on Shanpallas not a bad price on the exchanges.
Hi Sean
Very happy with the shortlist there! Shanpallas was just too big to ignore on the exchanges, expected him to be 4 or 5 points shorter if I’m honest!
Can’t crab his jumping this time either!
Ben (NTF)
Ben
I was nearly caught by surprise at this, but fortunately checked my email while between pints!
Backed Back Off Mate and Heany (e/w), and Shanpallas to win! Unexpected joy on a Sunday. What a weekend, Big Easy on Saturday, Shanpallas today, Monday tomorrow
Hi Ian
Always good to check your emails between pints 😉
Decent couple of days, always good!
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Great analysis Ben, backed Back off mate ew but missed the price on the winner due to being out 🙁
Cheers Nick
It was a fine run for E/W spoils from Back Off Mate. Shame you missed price on Shanpallas though.
Ben (NTF)