From Paris to Kelso and every disco that I go……….
A busy little post today and we start with something new for the NTF Blog as we have an extremely interesting guest post from RACING UK pundit Andy Richmond –
In-Running angles from Andy Richmond (Racing UK)- Kelso 2.05
The first race at Kelso (2.05) looks a very tricky handicap for the Borders track to get their new National Hunt season underway with, but with the betting landscape changing year on year do you have to find the winner to make money on a race? The answer is of course no. I believe that there are a couple of horses here which are of particular interest even though they may not win the race.
Now I realise that in-running betting is not for everyone but hopefully over the course of the winter courtesy of Ben’s Narrowing the Field website I can demonstrate some profitable angles around various races and horses that will be of benefit in the future. The software that I use is Proform Professional (www.proformprofessional.com) and all info is reproduced from that data source.
Back to the Kelso 2.05, the two vehicles that I have identified in this race are CLAUDE CARTER and KING’S CHORISTER. When looking at National Hunt races especially one of the first traits that I look for in horses is how they finish their races off, a trait I have christened conversion rate, basically trading at a low price and converting to wins. Now with the software I use you can look at any price traded to see how horses “convert”, in this case the price I have used is Evs or 2.0, but the software will accept and analyse any price that you want.
The two horses that I have mentioned already both have very poor conversion rates when trading below the 2.0 threshold, in fact neither has won a race, although it must be pointed out that KING’S CHORISTER has “won” once over hurdles but he was awarded that race on a technicality some months after the race was run. Using the software more fully you can drill down on each horse and look at their exact record when trading at or below the 2.0 threshold.
So we know that both horses look to have problems converting their chances at the end of races and that must spell a warning sign if you have backed them, but let’s take a look at one more piece of statistical evidence on these two horses.
Proform Professional on its IR module can also work out how many times a horses has traded a certain percentage below its Betfair SP (BSP).
Both the featured horses have a good record of trading well below their BSP, in this case 75% – the previous evidence allied to this piece, would lead you to the conclusion that can also be gained from visual confirmation, that these two horses travel well but don’t convert their chances at the business end of the race.
The race is likely to be run at a strong pace which will help both horses, but how do we use this information, well I would suggest a couple of angles into the race. Given the amount of times that each horse has traded below its BSP, both would make decent back-to-lay vehicles as their smooth travelling styles are bound to catch the eye of in-running players and on the data available backing either pre-race and laying at around 50% of the price you obtain would gain you a free bet on the horse or why not lay at 50% less for a slightly higher stake to produce a “green book”. That would be the conventional way to attack the race.
But the data does throw up other thoughts on the race, given the data presented and their records would you want to be backing either of these at short prices in the race? Therefore although it’s not for everyone a short priced lay may prove the way forward – are they horses to trust in a finish is my question. Alternatively, if either are trading short and they still have opposition around them backing the opposition may provide a profit.
There are a myriad of ways to use data such as this and I’m really only scratching the surface of the possibilities in the race and how the data can be used.
I’ll be looking at more races and individual horses in coming weeks and hopefully showing you how to interpret races, horses and how to use them as in-running opportunities.
If you have any questions I’ll be more than happy to answer them via Ben, or you can contact me on Twitter (@bickley14).
Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe Dosage Figures
I’ve not fired up Dosage figures on the Blog for quite some time now so I’m rectifying that today with a look at one of the major races on the international racing calender – The Group 1 Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe.
For those of you that are unfamiliar with the concept Dosage then put simply – Dosage ratings are numerical figures which indicate the probable speed or stamina capabilities of a horse based on the appearance of influential sires in its bloodline.
Now we have that cleared up lets take look at the Dosage stats from the previous 15 renewals of the Arc –
DP
15/15 had 10 points or more in their Dosage Profile | 12/15 had 20 points or more in their Dosage Profile
DI
13/15 had a DI of 2.14 or below
10/15 had a DI of 1.67 or below
1/15 had a DI below 0.82
CD
14/15 CD of 0.69 or below
12/15 CD of 0.56 or below
1/15 CD below -0.10
Dosage Points Angle
12/15 fitted into 1 of the 3 DPA angles
DQ – 4 | 20+ – 8 | PATB – 0
But how does that all equate when we apply it to the 16 runners entered in this seasons renewal –
Dosage Green Zone (probable winners based on Dosage)
| Horse | DP | DPA | TOT | DI | CD | RS |
| HIRUNO D’AMOUR | 4-0-8-2-0 | / | 14 | 1.33 | 0.43 | CP |
| GALIKOVA | 10-1-17-4-2 | DQ | 34 | 1.34 | 0.38 | CP/HU |
| WORKFORCE | 7-1-14-8-0 | 20+ | 30 | 1.00 | 0.23 | CP/HU |
| SHARETA | 5-3-7-6-1 | DQ | 22 | 1.10 | 0.23 | FR |
| SNOW FAIRY | 1-2-10-1-0 | / | 14 | 1.33 | 0.21 | HU |
| TESTOSTERONE | 3-2-11-4-0 | 20+ | 20 | 1.11 | 0.20 | CP/FR |
| NAKAYAMA FESTA | 2-1-12-0-1 | / | 16 | 1.29 | 0.19 | CP |
| ST NICHOLAS ABBEY | 3-1-10-4-0 | / | 18 | 1.00 | 0.17 | CP/HU |
| TREASURE BEACH | 3-1-9-4-1 | PATB | 18 | 0.89 | 0.06 | CP |
| RELIABLE MAN | 3-2-10-5-2 | DQ | 22 | 0.83 | -0.05 | HU |
Dosage Orange Zone (possible winners based on Dosage)
| Horse | DP | DPA | TOT | DI | CD | RS |
| SILVER POND | 5-0-16-8-1 | 20+ | 30 | 0.76 | 0.00 | CP |
| DANEDREAM | 2-2-17-2-5 | DQ | 28 | 0.81 | -0.21 | HU/CP |
Dosage Red Zone (unlikely winners based on Dosage)
| Horse | DP | DPA | TOT | DI | CD | RS |
| MEANDRE | 1-0-2-1-2 | / | 6 | 0.50 | -0.50 | HU/CP |
| MASKED MARVEL | 2-0-9-4-1 | / | 16 | 0.68 | -0.13 | CP/HU |
| SO YOU THINK | 3-0-10-8-1 | 20+ | 22 | 0.57 | -0.18 | CP |
| SARAFINA | 3-0-12-7-2 | 20+ | 24 | 0.60 | -0.21 | HU |
Quite a few runners sit snugly in the Green Zone, however, the red zone contains some very interesting runners indeed. Using Dosage as our gauge these 4 would be winning out of turn or at least going against the Dosage trends of the past 15 seasons.
This does not mean, of course, that these 4 CAN’T win or WON’T win but the Dosage figures are one angle they do have to overcome.
I would never suggest using Dosage as an analysis tool on its own but rather as an angle to sit alongside other forms of analysis; whatever your prefered method on form study and analysis may well be.
Bonne chance whoever you may plump for at Longchamp today.
FREE NTF 90+ Day October Trainer Guide
Those of you that are already on the FREE NTF web-site updates list will have already received your copy of the NTF 90+ day National Hunt October Trainers Guide. For those of you that have not yet signed up here is a little taster from the 17 page FREE guide –
Paul Nicholls 90+ day mini system
Class 3 races – Non-handicaps – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
17/26 | 65% S/R | +£19.30 BFLSP – W&P 21/26 | 81% S/R
A powerful little mini system there for all you system fans and I can see no real reason for this one to stop producing the results in the future (unless Rubt gets injured again!).
To grab the full copy of this guide that includes numerous angles and stats for you to utilise and impliment throughout October simply fill in your details in the sign-up form on the right hand side of the site. Not only will you receive access to the National Hunt trainer guide you will also be able to download 2 other exclusive NTF FREE guides.
NTF National Hunt 2011/12 Subscription Service
The National Hunt season proper is creeping ever closer which also means the NTF National Hunt subscription service will be soon be opening for its 2nd full season.
When the doors open there will only be limited spaces available.
If you have never seen an NTF race guide before then please click on the link below for an example from last season –
I like to think the vast majority of NTF followers are like myself – more captivated by information they can work with to produce their own selections (if they so wish) than they are in receiving selections from a tipster with no background information whatsoever on why X will win race X. The NTF subscription service is about precisely that – conveying serious racing punters with First-Class alternative angles and guides that are basically not available from other sources.
More information on the service is available on the following link –
https://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/join-ntf/
Best regards
Ben (NTF)
P.S name the tune that I have modified for the title of the post……go on you know you want to!
Really interested in the IR angle since i’ve been looking at this for some time now, laying the field where i think that gubbings are statistically likely. I note that the above blog seems to look at it from the viewpoint of characteristics of the individual horses, whereas i come at it more from the individual course viewpoint. The problem with this though is that as you continually filter it down, the number of stats reduces significantly.
Do you just choose a single optimal laying price, such as 2.0 in the above, or a set of sequenced lay prices.
Rgds, Sheva.
Hi Sheva
Thanks for you comments.
The software that I use detailed in the article today has the capability to answer exactly the question that you pose, and can look at individual courses by race, ground etc etc – and that data can be looked at by on a price by price basis from 1.01 in all the increments up from there. It also contains the capability to work out if the “system” would have made money by calculating the lay profit or loss for the particular query.
In subsequent weeks I will touch on individual races and possibly courses, in fact if you go to this blog today I have written about that very subject – http://proformracing.blogspot.com/
On the question of price, I don’t have one optimal price, but have just used 2.0 in this case to look at what I have termed conversion rates, the price can be whatever you want it to be via the software, and as the software also gives me detailed information about how the horse has traded on all of its runs I would also use that to look at my optimal lay or lay prices for a particular horse.
You may also find the link to the attached article useful – http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2009/04/lay-field-my-favourite-racing-strategy.html
Hopefully that answers your questions on what is a vast area and a subject I hope to explore more in later weeks.
Regards
Andy R
Interestingly, just looking at yesterdays data from Newmarket and Ascot, almost every single horse in every race was laid IR lower than SP, except a couple of rags. I’ve noticed that this seems to be an increasing trait recently… maybe layers don’t want to risk offering big prices so early in a race anymore, or competitive end of season races mean almost everything is in with a shout and gets backed IR. It would make too simple an angle though wouldn’t it, back everything a couple of minutes before the off and lay at a point or two lower (keep IR). Just food for thought…
Also just looking at the 4 red dosage horses in the Arc, laying all of them would have given odds against the rest of the field. Surprised SYT had such a bad figure though, i doubt the majority of 12f Group 1 winners couldn’t have finished 3rd in a 2m Melbourne Cup.
Hi Ben
Your dosage figures for the most probable winner of the Arc convinced me that the supplementing of Danedream was worth a bet despite the record of fillies in the race. that combined with winners of the arc being drawn low and previous winners having been successful from two of her previous races (see my blog stats http://bobt-racingdataform.blogspot.com/) made for a very profitable race for me – congratulations mate because without your information – would have let it run without my loot – thanks for for the invaluable insight.
Bob
Good stuff Bob. Glad you were able to utilise the figures to your advantage. Nice pay-out for you.
Thanks for the comment 🙂
Ben (NTF)
I won’t be able to thank you fully for the articles on your web-site. I know you’d put a lot of time and energy into all of them and hope you know how much I appreciate it. I hope I could do the same for someone else sometime.