Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes: 6th, 7th & 8th September
Time for the latest group of NTF ‘Weekend Handicap Sleepers’…
Hot on the heels of last week’s notes… which has already seen two of the noted horses hit the winners enclosure since they were posted…
Both those winners – OTAGO & PERSUASION – being highlighted to full NTF members on the NTF Stats Sheets…
Hopefully more of the same from this week’s bunch…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 6th, 7th & 8th September
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📆 Friday 6th September
⭕ 200 Haydock – 5f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 3rd – GRACE ANGEL
The 1st, 2nd, 4th & 5th were drawn in the bottom half and raced on the far side, so well worth marking up this effort from Darryll Holland’s 4yo, who broke from the top half of the draw and raced down the centre… she raced here off 81, 5lbs below her peak winning mark of 86, so she’s still got a bit to play with before the handicapper anchors her again (she went up 1lb to OR 82 for this effort), and she’s worth looking out for under her PC… OR 86 or less | C3 or less (worth <9k) | May-Nov | DSLR 28 or less = 310211131322 (5/12, 5p – all 5 career wins)…
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⭕ 345 Haydock – 1m6.5f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 5th – BILLY NO MATES
The four ahead of the Michael Dods trained 8yo were all either ‘chasing the leader’ or ‘disputing the lead’ throughout this Class 5 contest and this race played in favour of those that were racing on or near the front end… BILLY NO MATES was the best of those that were held-up and he’s worth keeping on the radar for coming starts… he’s on a winnable mark at present, he ran here off OR 73 (went down 1lb to OR 72 after this run)… his peak winning mark is OR 76 and his last winning mark is OR 75, and I have PC for him as… OR 76 or less | C4 or less (<6k) | Flat tracks in July-Oct | fields of 11 or less = 512123116211 (6/12, 4p – all 6 career wins)…
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⭕ 420 Haydock – 7f Class 3 Handicap
🏇 5th – FLACCIANELLO
I’m not convinced this 3yo fully stays a 7f trip… she was travelling well around 3f out, but she seemed to get a bit lost in the closing stages and looks worth dropping back to sprinting trips… she’s now 0/4, 0p over >6f compared to 3/9, 1p over 5f & 6f… she ran here off OR 84, 1lb below her highest win mark and 3lbs below her highest place mark, and was dropped 2lbs to OR 82 for this effort… she’s worth looking out for under the following… straight 5f or 6f | C2 or less | OR 87 or less = 21161 (3/5, 1p – all 3 career wins)…
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⭕ 445 Ascot – 1m Class 2 Handicap
🏇 5th – NAVAGIO
Not one I have a Handicap Ceiling for at present but given he finished 3rd in the Lincoln at the start of the season off OR 96 and ran here off OR 91 (and was dropped another 3lb to OR 88 for this run) then I suspect he’s on a mark that he should at least be competitive from… this was his first run for 71-days and he’s always been best off shorter breaks… he’s 3/12, 4p off breaks of 30 days or less compared to 0/9, 4p off breaks of >30-days… so he’ll likely come on for this outing and with a little drop back to C3 or less level next time out I’d be hopeful of a better effort… I have loose PC for him as… Turf | C3 or less | DSLR 30 or less = 18125133 (3/8, 3p – all 3 career wins)…
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📆 Saturday 7th September
⭕ 135 Ascot – 7f Class 2 Handicap
🏇 10th – SPANGLED MAC
This was the 5yo’s first run on anything softer than Good to Soft and chances are he didn’t really appreciate as much cut underfoot as he faced here… he’s now back below his last and highest winning mark of OR 96 (was dropped 1lb for this run to OR 95), so he’s handicapped to be competitive again, and he’s worth looking out for under the following… OR 96 or less | fields of 11 or less = 11221111331 (7/11, 3p – all 7 career wins)…
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⭕ 300 Haydock – 5f Class 2 Handicap
🏇 4th – LOOKING FOR LYNDA
Only lost out on this in the final furlong but there was still plenty to like about the effort and he’s in decent form right now… 2 of his 3 wins have come in Aug or Sept and he holds his form well in Aug-Oct period… 2/14, 4p in these months… and he’s worth keeping on the radar for getting his PC again… 5f-5.5f | OR <90 | Race worth <30k | Good/G-S/Soft | DSLR <31 = 47232721311 (3/11, 5p – all 3 career wins)…
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⭕ 515 Haydock – 1m Class 4 Handicap
🏇 8th – AL RUFAA
Was starting to make headway from out the back in the closing stages of this but he was hampered in the final furlong (twice) and that stopped any chance he had of fighting out a finish (probably for the places)… he ran here off OR 84, which is 13lbs below his highest winning mark and only 2lbs above his last winning mark, and should be at least competitive when meeting with his PC… I have PC for him as… OR 97 or less | 7f-1m1.5f | fields of <12 | DSLR 30 or less | race worth <11k = 6231821111 (5/10, 3p – all 5 career wins)… a smaller field than what he faced here would be ideal – he 0/15, 3p in fields of 12+ compared to 5/20, 5p in fields of 11 or less…
🏇 9th – URBAN SPRAWL
He’s chunking down the handicap at present… running here off OR 82, 11lbs below his peak mark, 8lbs below his peak place mark and 3lbs below his peak win mark… and he was dropped another 3lbs for this run to OR 79… and whilst this was a disappointing effort I think he’s probably a horse that has very strict PC that he needs to meet, to be able to run to his best… those PC being… OR 85 or less | Handicaps on tracks with undulations | G/S or quicker = 1111 (4/4 – all 4 career wins)… conditions he didn’t have here…
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⭕ 610 Thirsk – 7f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 6th – AL MARMAR
The pace held up in this Class 4 and that was always going to make things tricky for Gemma Tutty’s 5yo, who would likely have needed a pace collapse to get involved over a 7f trip… he’s 0/6, 0p over 7f compared to 3/21, 5p over 1m trips… unsurprisingly he did all his best work late in the day here and he’d be of interest stepping back up to 1m and meeting with his PC… OR 87 or less | 1m round a bend | fields of 12 or less | NO headgear = 3831112 (3/7, 2p – all 3 career wins)…
🏇 7th – PRAIRIE FALCON
Another that was held up out the back and the way the race was run just went bang against him… he ran here off OR 75, 1lb below his last and highest winning mark and 2lbs below his highest place mark and was dropped 1lb for this outing to OR 74… so he’s handicapped to be competitive right now and he’s also currently in his prime months of July to Sept… and he’s worth looking out for under the following… OR 77 or less | 6f-7f Hcps in July-Sept | Good+ (or AW) | DSLR 42 or less = 732131 (2/6, 3p – both career wins)…
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📆 Sunday 8th September
⭕ 435 York – 6f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 4th – IT JUST TAKES TIME
Winless since June 2023 (17 starts back) but his last two runs suggest he’s on the verge of adding another win to his CV and he’s a good way below his last and highest win mark right now… he ran here off OR 78, 12lbs below his high/last win mark… he’d be of interest if rocking up under the following PC… OR 90 or less | Turf C3 or less | May-Oct | DSLR 25 or less = 6/17, 6p – all 6 wins under Mark Walford…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps – Handicaps
LTO – Last Time Out
CP’s – Cheek-Pieces
In other news…
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Cheers – Ben (NTF)
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