Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes: 19th – 21st July
A bumper set of ‘Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes‘ for you today, with EIGHTEEN horses and their Prime Conditions highlighted below, all who ran last weekend and ALL who failed to win (but who showed something to me that suggests they could be winning shortly)…
There possibly won’t be any notes for next week as my attention will firmly be on the Glorious Goodwood action that starts next Tuesday (30th July)…
I’ll have some FREE analysis for Glorious Goodwood, as well as opening up the doors to the full NTF members service for those that want to hook up just for Glorious Goodwood, and by far and away the BEST place to keep up to date with all that is by joining the FREE NTF List…
You can use the form below for that 👇
Now for that whooper of a set of Handicap Sleeper notes from last weekend’s racing…
Weekly Handicap Sleeper Notes 19th – 21st July
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📅 Friday 19th July
⭕ 350 Haydock – 1m6f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 3rd – KITSUNE POWER
Tim Easterby looks to have got this one rolling again and this was his third good run on the spin, under what would look to be his Prime Conditions… OR 91 or less | Hcps worth 17k or less | Good or quicker ground = 31312121 (4/8, 3p – all 4 career wins)… he’s worth keeping on the radar as long as the ground stays on the quick side…
**
⭕ 511 Nottingham – 5f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 4th – SECRET HANDSHEIKH
Surprised he started as 5/4 fav for this as his 5 turf wins have all come on Good or quicker and he’s 0/10, 1p of G/S or softer (it was G/S here)… he’s well-handicapped at the minute – he ran here off OR 56 which is 8lbs below his last winning mark and a whopping 32lbs below his peak rating – and he’s worth looking out for under the following… OR <86 | Good+ (& AW) | C4 or less | Fields of <8 = 8/19, 2p – all 8 career wins… this 4th of 4 effort easily excusable on account of the ground…
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⭕ 635 Hamilton – 6f Class 2 Handicap
Race Note: It was a positive to be drawn high and up on the pace in this, with the first 4 home drawn in the 4 highest stalls and all 4 also all up on with the pace from the off…
🏇 2nd – SILKY WILKIE
A big effort from the 5yo here and he just didn’t quite have enough to get past Hamilton specialist JORDAN ELECTRICS… no shame in that though as that one was winning for the third race in a row and also winning his 6th race in 9 starts this season… these were Silky Wilkie’s PC… OR 99 or less | DSLR 28 or less | Jan-Sept | Straight or RH track = 6/18, 7p – all 6 career wins… and he’s well worth keeping on the radar over the next few weeks… worth noting that we can probably be loose enough with his handicap ceiling as he has previously placed in handicap company off as high as OR 107, so I’d be more than happy to consider him from above OR 99 if his other conditions are met…
🏇 3rd – FIRST FOLIO
A solid effort in 3rd from the 6yo and plenty signs on his last 2 starts that a 4th career win is on the horizon for him… he ran here off OR 87, which is 10lbs below his last and highest winning mark, so he’s very much on a winnable mark right now, and he’s worth looking out for under his PC… OR <98 | 6f | race worth 40k or less | Good+ | NO Headgear = 3124151 (3/7, 2p – all 3 career wins)…
🏇 8th – ROCKET RODNEY
Drawn low in stall 2 and ran held-up so was always going to be hard for him to make an impact here… he’s yet to win in 8 handicap starts but he is dropping down the ratings – ran here off OR 97, 5lbs below his peak handicap rating and 8lbs below his peak overall rating – and he could be interesting if they just tweak the conditions they run him under… I have probable PC for him as… Straight 5f | DSLR 30 or less = 22211 (2/5, 3p – both career wins)…
**
⭕ 645 Pontefract – 1m Class 6 Handicap
🏇 4th – PREMIERSHIP
On a losing streak of 9 now but there’s been some signs of life on his last couple of starts and he could be worth looking out for on coming starts, especially if he meets with his PC… OR 53 or less | 1m Handicaps | G/S or quicker | May-Aug | DSLR 12+ = 431811 (3/6, 1p – all 3 career wins)… his trainer, Michael Wigham, generally has his handicappers in decent shape in the July-August period… M Wigham | Turf C4 or less Hcps | July-Aug | 1+ seasonal starts | SP 20/1 or less = 32/151 | 21% S/R | +£84.92 – W&P 67/151 | 44% S/R – 23% above exp (E/W = +£91.36)…
**
⭕ 720 Pontefract – 1m Class 4 Handicap
🏇 3rd – YOUARENOTFORGIVEN
The 6yo was drawn widest of all and settled out the back in this and that’s generally a tough set of circumstances to overcome at Ponte, especially when there wasn’t a blistering pace to be attacking… he ran a solid race given his draw and running positions and his mark of OR 74 is one he can be winning from… he’s worth looking for under his PC… OR 77 or less | C4 or less 7f-1m0.5f Hcps | May-Oct | Good+ | Fields of 10 or less = 311112 (4/6, 1p – all 4 career wins)…
**
⭕ 755 Pontefract – 5f Class 3 Handicap
🏇 3rd – WEN MOON
The 4yo has been running well on recent starts without quite having enough to get his head home in front…he’s back on his last winning mark of OR 84 just now and I have Prime Conditions for him as… C3 or less | OR 84 or less | tracks with undulations | NO Headgear = 33121612 (3/8, 4p – all 3 career wins)… a small drop in the ratings wouldn’t go amiss, just to give him a bit more wiggle room to work with…
🏇 5th – MAKANAH
A little disappointing on his last 4 starts (including this one) but he’s on a very winnable mark right now if they can get him revitalised somehow… he ran here off OR 86, which is 10lbs below his last and highest Handicap winning mark and 18lbs below his peak rating… he’s best on a straight track, so this 5th of 8 on a LH 5f is excusable, and he may be worth considering if meeting with the following PC… C2 or less (race worth 14k or less) | Straight turf tracks | May-Oct = 7/17, 5p – all 7 career wins…
**
⭕ 900 Pontefract – 6f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 4th – LATE ARRIVAL
Was tight for room at vital stages of this race and the gaps just kept closing on him in the final couple of furlongs… these were his Prime Conditions… C4 or less Hcps (worth 6k or less) | >5f & <7.5f | fields of <14 | OR <76 | DSLR >10 & 43 = 7/20, 6p – all 7 career wins… and he’s worth keeping in mind for similar races…
**
📅 Saturday 20th July
⭕ 320 Ripon – 1m2f Class 4 Handicap
🏇 2nd – COCKALORUM
Bumped into an unexposed type in the shape of the winner PREPSCHOOL but he had the rest beaten off by upwards of 3L and the 9yo remains in good form and on a mark that he’s capable of winning from… he’s worth looking out for under his PC in the coming weeks… OR 91 or less | 1m1f-1m2f (turf round a LH or RH bend) | C3 or less | NOT wearing Blinkers = 9/20, 4p (all 9 career wins)…
**
⭕ 430 Ripon – 1m Class 4 Handicap
🏇 3rd – MASTER ZOFFANY
A much better effort from the 6yo after some disappointing efforts on recent starts. He ran here off OR 80, which is 6lbs below his last and highest winning mark and 10lbs below his peak rating, so he’s on a mark he can be winning off, and he’s worth looking out for under the following PC… Handicaps | OR 86 or less | G/S or quicker (or AW) | fields of 12 or less | DSLR 42 or less = 3071151111 (6/10, 1p – all 6 career wins)…
**
⭕ 505 Ripon – 6f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 9th – CRACK THE KODE
Been struggling a little since he turned into his 3yo season but worth noting that his 2 wins as a 2yo both came after July, and he may just be one that comes to life from next month. Both those 2yo wins also came at Catterick and although he may not need to be running there to be winning, it would likely be an added positive for him. He’s now dropped below both his last winning handicap marks, so if he does come to life once we turn into August he’s on a mark he can be winning off, and I’d have a very loose set of PC for him right now as… Hcps in August – Oct | OR 63 or less = 11 (2/2 – both career wins)…
**
⭕ 600 Newmarket – 1m Class 4 Handicap
🏇 3rd – DUTCH DECOY
The 7yo has been winless since winning at this meeting last season, but he does tend to hit peak form in the July-August period and there were clear signs here that he’s coming into a bit of form again… he’s worth considering over the next few weeks, especially under the following… July-Aug | OR 90 or less | Hcps on tracks with Undulations (or AW) | G/S or quicker (or AW) = 35133141111 (6/11, 4p)…
**
⭕ 545 Doncaster – 5f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 2nd – EMPEROR CARADOC
Worth marking this run up a couple of pounds as the high stalls were the call in this one, with 3 of the first 4 drawn 8+ and 5 of the first 6 drawn in stalls 7 or higher, the only one to get involved from the bottom half of the draw was EMPERORO CARADOC, who was breaking from stall 1… this effort puts his last 5 runs at a form line of… 21222 and he remains on a winnable mark at present, and is worth looking out for under his PC on coming starts… OR 72 or less | 5f-7f | C5 or less | May-Oct = 212223311 (3/9, 6p – all 3 career wins)…
🏇 3rd – ZUFFOLO
First time blinkers were on here and they seemed to have the required impact, sparking the 4yo into a bit of life after a few down the field efforts since his last win (Newcastle – Nov 2023)… the upshot of those down the field efforts, of course, is that he’s on a competitive mark again, running here off OR 61, 9lbs below his last and highest win mark, and he’s worth looking out for under the following… OR 71 or less | DSLR 25 or less | race worth 5k or less = 98111 (3/5 – all 3 career wins)… he was running here off a break of 45-days so he should come on plenty for the effort…
**
⭕ 625 Haydock – 1m2.5f Class 5 Handicap
🏇 2nd – BEAUTIFUL CROWN
The switch to Jack Jones at the start of the summer sparked this one back to life no end and the trainer should still be able to get a bit more from him before the handicapper catches up… I’ve PC for him as… May-Aug | OR 74 or less | 1m-1m2.5f Hcps on LH tracks = 21134211 (4/8, 3p – all 4 career wins)…
**
📅 Sunday 21st July
⭕ 502 Redcar – 1m1f Class 6 Handicap
🏇 4th – TEMPER TRAP
Very much a second half of the year horse, with all his wins coming in the July to Oct period and his monthly splits reading… July-Oct = 12/40, 5p | All other months = 0/24, 0p… he almost snatched 3rd here and this looked a sure sign he’s about to hit a streak of form, from a mark – OR 52 – that’s 12lbs below his last and highest winning mark… he well worth keeping on the radar for a race fitting his PC… Turf Hcps over 1m-1m1f | OR 64 or less | July-Oct | fields of <13 = 4111112114121151 (11/16, 2p – all 11 handicap wins)… his Handicap form in August when racing from OR 64 or less reads… 11112171 (6/8, 1p)…
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Shorthand explanations…
PC = Prime Conditions
DSLR = Days Since Last Run
OR = Official Rating
Hcps – Handicaps
LTO – Last Time Out
CP’s – Cheek-Pieces
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That’s all from me today… I’m off to get stuck into the behind the scenes work for my 2024 Glorious Goodwood analysis…
Fingers crossed we get some of the more standard underfoot conditions we are used to for the 5-day Glorious Goodwood meeting, rather than some of the Soft & Heavy we experienced in 2 of the last 3 Glorious meetings… 🤞🤞🤞
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
p.s. get all previous free NTF blog posts on the main menu page HERE>>>
p.p.s I’ll likely have some free Glorious Goodwood analysis available for the meeting, but I’m not sure if that will be here on the blog or just kept to email only analysis, via the FREE NTF Mailing list… so, to guarantee you get that analysis it’s definitely best to make sure you are on the FREE NTF List>>>
Great job again
Cheers Joseph, much appreciated 👍
Ben (NTF)