Five under the radar runners to follow from the 2024 Cheltenham Festival…
I decided to let the dust settle a little on this year’s Cheltenham Festival before firing out my usual ‘to follow’ horses from the meeting… although it looks like there is no obvious sign of things quietening down on the Cheltenham talk just yet 😐
‘How to fix the Festival…’ ‘Drop this race… change that race…‘ ‘Ban the Irish horses…‘
…that last one is hilarious 😄🤣 ‘You are too good Mullins, we don’t want your likes over here… and take all your buddies with you… you can keep all those top-shelf horses you have, no one wants to see them over here… we don’t want to better ourselves and try and improve… nah… so just stay on your side of the water thanks very much‘…
I was really hoping Mullins or someone would respond to that comment with…
…aah… anyway… I’ll let all that stuff rumble on… it’s my job to find profitable angles/horses based on what IS entered and what HAS run… so here are FIVE under the radar runners to follow from the 2024 Cheltenham Festival…
Five under the radar runners to follow from the 2024 Cheltenham Festival…
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🟨🟩 FAVOUR AND FORTUNE (A King)
6th in the Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
The 6yo made a mistake at the first and that half put him on the back foot from the off, and he could never really get in a solid rhythm after that, although he did keep plugging away and picked off a decent 6th place finish, which was more than commendable. He’s now 0/3, 0p on Very Undulating tracks so could well be that he just struggles on tracks such as Cheltenham and he’s worth keeping an eye out for if he heads to Aintree at the National meeting… he is 12111 (4/5, 1p) on flat & slightly undulating tracks and he does seem happier with less undulations to tackle…
Could also be that he wasn’t as happy on the Soft/Heavy ground as some of the others in the Supreme and he’s worth marking up on the bare form of his effort…
Chasing will be on the cards for him next season but he’s done enough over hurdles this term to suggest he could bang in a Graded Hurdle win before this season is out…
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🟦🟥 KITTY’S LIGHT (C Williams)
7th in the Class 1 Ultima Handicap Chase
I assume this season has been all about getting him reading for the National at Aintree (3 of his 4 starts before the National weights were locked and loaded came over hurdles, to protect his chase mark) and this was just a run to smooth off the rough edges for his main target…
He was never put in this with any real gusto and was allowed to come home in his own time without any buttons being pressed… the Cheek-Pieces he wore when winning the Scottish National and Bet365 Gold Cup last season were also not on here (form of 3110 when wearing CP’s) and I suspect they are being kept back for when the handbrake is released (likely the National if he gets in… currently 47th 38th on the list)…
I have Prime Conditions for Kitty’s Light of…
Chases in Feb-Oct | DSLR 56 or less
…where he has form of…
11163222211121 (7/14, 6p – all 7 career wins)
…conditions he will meet if he gets in the National…
…under his Prime Conditions and over trips of >3m4f he is… 111322 (3/6, 3p)… and he’d need to be considered a serious player in the National if he gets in…
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⬛🟨 HARDY DU SEUIL (J Snowden)
PU in the Class 1 Grand Annual Handicap Chase
Surprised he was as low as 12-1 for this as conditions really didn’t look in his favour here… he’s best at C2 level and below and also better in smaller fields and I’d have Prime Conditions for him as…
Class 2 or less | fields of <13 | DSLR <57
…where he is…
2213221U1 (3/9, 4p – all 3 career wins)
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🟨⬛ CITY CHIEF (N Henderson)
PU in the Class 2 Kim Muir Handicap Chase
The 7yo doesn’t seem to enjoy Undulating or Very Undulating tracks (now 0/5, 0p on such tracks) and returning here off a 61-day break put him just outside his preferred break period of DSLR 60 or less (although the track was probably the main sticking point for him)…
He was dropped 3lbs to OR 135 for this, which puts him 7lbs below his peak mark (and the mark he started this season on), and I’d be very surprised if that wasn’t a mark he could take advantage of…
I’d still be looking at Prime Conditions for him as…
DSLR 60 or less | flat or slightly undulating tracks
…where he is…
611112 (4/6, 1p – all 4 career wins)
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🟦⬜ AFADIL (P Nicholls)
5th in the Class 1 County Handicap Hurdle
He’s probably not the greatest fan of Cheltenham (now 0/4, 0p at track) and he possibly doesn’t really enjoy the hill at the end, as he was still going well enough until jumping the last where he begun to wilt, losing third in the final few strides…
I’d be looking at a rough set of Prime Conditions for him as…
Jan-April | Flat or Slightly Undulating tracks | 2m1f or less
…where he has a form line of…
112611 (4/6, 1p – all 4 career wins)
…at this stage it’s unclear if it’s just Cheltenham he doesn’t enjoy or if it’s all ‘Very Undulating’ tracks, as Cheltenham is the only ‘Very Undulating’ track he has experienced to date… it could even be he just doesn’t want a track with an uphill finish and will be OK at other tracks with undulations, providing the track doesn’t have a stiff/testing uphill finish… so worth keeping an open mind on that part of his Prime Conditions for now, until more evidence is acquired…
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Additional Cheltenham ‘to follow’ horse…
If you head to the Proform website then you’ll find an additional ‘to follow’ horse from myself…
>>>Horses To Follow (Using Proform Speed Figures)
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I suspect most of the above five skipped under the radar of the wider betting public and I’d be confident that, with a little bit of tweaking of the races they are aimed at/conditions they run under, they will find their way into the winners circle (or at least snatch some juicy E/W returns) either before the end of this season or in the early skirmishes of the 2024/25 season….
And if you are looking for a tracker to add my runners to follow from the 2024 Cheltenham Festival to then give HorseRaceBase a spin…
The extended FREE TRIAL for NTF readers is still available and you can test run the software for a full 7-days instead of the normal 3-day free trial that is available…
>>>FREE 7-day HorseRaceBase trial for NTF readers
The ability to track a huge number of horses on HorseRaceBase is only a tiny part of what you can do on the site… it’s well worth making use of the 7-day free trial to see what they have to offer…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
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