Three to follow from the Weekend: 2nd, 3rd & 4th February…
And after that weekend of top-shelf racing it is now the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) that is securely tucked away in the form book… another meeting that has proven to be a pivotal checkpoint as we steamroller our way towards the 2024 Cheltenham Festival…
A DRF meeting once again completely dominated by the one and only Willie Mullins… with NINE of the 15 races going the way of the Mullins juggernaut… as well as pulling in ALL 8 of the Grade 1′s over the two days… for all he did have 60% of the runners in the Grade 1’s…
On the stats front and looking ahead to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival… here’s an interesting one concerning Willie Mullins and his DRF winners going on to Cheltenham…
Willie Mullins | Cheltenham Festival | WON at the DRF LTO | aged 7yo or younger
10/26 | 38% S/R | +£27.84 BFLSP – W&P 20/26 | 77% S/R
19% above expectation
E/W returns = +£34.70
If you remove the age filter… concentrate on only the Cheltenham Grade 1’s… and look at the Mullins horses that ran at the DRF and DID NOT WIN… you get…
Willie Mullins | Cheltenham Festival G1’s | Ran at DRF LTO and DID NOT WIN
2/66 | 3% S/R | -£60.04 BFLSP – W&P 14/66 | 21% S/R
69% below expectation
E/W returns = -£82.09
The two winners – Lossiemouth and Min – both finished second at the DRF… so if you look at those that finished third or worse for Mullins at the DRF you get…
Willie Mullins | Cheltenham Festival G1’s | Ran at DRF LTO and finished THIRD or worse
0/52 | 0% S/R | -£52.00 BFLSP – W&P 11/52 | 21% S/R
E/W returns = -£63.75
…some interesting Willie Mullins/DRF/Cheltenham Festival stats for you to keep in mind…
But more of that in coming weeks… for now, let’s get back to the matter in hand, and the latest…
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Three to follow from the weekend: 2nd, 3rd & 4th February…
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CAPTAIN QUINT (R Dobbin)
2nd in a Class 3 Handicap Chase – 4.00 Musselburgh (Saturday 3rd)
Mistakes at the 4th last fence (a bad enough mistake as well) and then the 2nd last fence stopped him laying down any serious challenge to the winner, and for all clean jumps at those fences probably still wouldn’t have been enough to allow him to catch the winner, the mistakes certainly stopped him finishing any closer.
He’s probably best Left-Handed anyway (3/7 LH compared to 0/6 RH) but this was still a decent enough effort and he’s worth keeping on the radar, as he is currently below his last/highest winning mark.
I’d have Prime Conditions for him as…
OR <120 | LH track
…which gives him a form line of…
13131 (3/5, 2p – all 3 career wins)
…so a switch back to a left-handed track on coming starts would make him of interest…
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RED ROOKIE (E Lavelle)
3rd in a Class 2 Handicap Chase – 2.00 Sandown (Saturday 3rd)
The drying ground may just have done for him here and he seemed to be taken off his feet in the early part of the race.
He’s now 0/2 on Good, 1/7 on Good to Soft and 4/8 on Soft or Heavy… so any rain in the coming weeks would likely be a positive for him…
I also wonder if the Lavelle team have just been running a little flat recently… with form of 2/38 the last 30-days and 3/57 the last 60-days… I don’t think it’s a massive worry, but they maybe just are not quite clicking as they would want to be…
I’d have Prime Conditions for RED ROOKIE of…
Jan-March | 2m1f or less
…where he is…
313F1111 (5/8, 1p – all 5 career wins)
…and a similar target in coming weeks, ideally with a bit of cut underfoot, would be ideal for him…
…he was dropped a handy 3lbs to OR 131 for this effort, which puts him 6lbs below his last and highest winning mark…
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PETIT TONNERRE (JJ O’Neill)
5th in a Class 2 Handicap Chase – 3.35 Musselburgh (Sunday 4th)
I still think they are up to something with this one…
He briefly looked like he was going to have a say in this contest but he checked back out of things about as quickly as he checked into it and this should see him shuffle down a few more pounds in the handicap…
JP McManus ran a similar type at this meeting in 2016, in the shape of FULL SHIFT… that one was pulled up in his Musselburgh race and then rocked up at the Cheltenham Festival the next month and ran 4th of 22 in the 2m4f Brown Advisory Plate…
…and it wouldn’t surprise me if this one took a similar path…
He’s already got Cheltenham experience in the bank (2-runs over fences at start of this season and a close 7th in the County Hurdle at the Festival in 2023) and the Festival is the most likely place for the handbrake to be released…
JP McManus has had 4 Handicap Chase winners at the Festival since 2013… all were…
…aged 6yo-9yo, had previously run at the track, had 2-4 starts in current season, had 1-9 Handicap Chase starts and were yet to win a Handicap Chase…
…which returns stats of… 4/19, 6p… improving to… 4/13, 5p… for those that started at 10/1 or less…
PETIT TONNERRE would fit those stats and if money comes for him to push him to 10/1 or less then that’s likely a sign that the handbrake will have been released…
He’s one I’m keeping a very close eye on…
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That’s all from me this week… I’m off to complete that Cheltenham Festival Free Guide I’ve been going on about for the past couple of weeks!! Real life has been getting in my way, unfortunately, but no more… I’m locking myself away and getting my serious Cheltenham Festival stat hat firmly locked onto my coupon!
If you are on the NTF Free List then it will drop with you shortly…
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Cheers – Ben (NTF)
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And remember to check the PodBlast out if you haven’t already done so… there’s a new one available every Friday (and it’s only every around 20-minutes long!)
Petit Tonnere has almost moved into my radar over the last year or so, He has been running to about the same mark (mid 130s) for a couple of years now. Like you I’m sure there is a decent race in him
Hi Steve
Yeah I suspect he’s plenty better than what he’s been allowed to show so far over fences… we’ll soon see if we are right in coming weeks/months I suppose…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Interesting analysis as always Ben & thanks for sharing.
Cheers Aaron, glad you enjoyed the analysis 👍
Ben (NTF)
Thanks for the analysis Ben, especially the non-winners at the DRF who try and “recover losses” at Cheltenham: I’m assuming those poor percentages transfer to other trainers – and that makes Marine Nationale (still the 5/2 fav for the Arkle) one to oppose.
Hi Ian
Mullins obviously gives a lot to work with on the numbers front… but if you look at Cheltenham Grade 1’s… horses that ran at the DRF LTO and finished 3rd or worse… and were NOT trained by Willie Mullins… you get…
2/49, 6p | -£17.99 – 34% below exp
…Marine Nationale would be trying to overturn that this year… so a stat negative there if you want to be against him 👍
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Hi Ben,
Are those Willie Mullins stats for the last 5 seasons?
Thanks,
Ben
Hi Ben
Last 6 seasons, since the DRF/Leopardstown meeting has been in it’s current format 👍
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
thanks ben
will keep the info about cheltenham i do back e/w when the odds are over 5/1
regards ron.
Cheers Ron
Hopefully the stats help point you towards some Cheltenham winners 👍
Ben (NTF)