NTF Summer Plate Analysis – Can Al Co land another Plate for Peter?

The big race of the day for most people this weekend is, naturally, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes from Ascot. However, a few hundred miles further up the country (185 miles to be precise if you take the A46!) the big race of the day for National Hunt enthusiasts is the Betfred Summer Plate from Market Rasen. It generally turns out to be a competitive affair and this season’s renewal is no different with 16 runners set to fight it out for the valuable £28,475 first prize.

Today on the Blog I’m going to rip into the jewel in Market Rasen’s crown using the NTF extended trends approach to construct a shortlist that we can use to try and find ourselves the winner. I’ll also provide you guys with the exclusive NTF pace map so we can see how the race is likely to be run and the shape the race will hopefully take.

I will also take a cursory look at the Dosage trends for this contest although they are not the strongest set to work with and I won’t be relying too heavily on them here.

*The race conditions for this race have changed slightly through the years but I’m happy to use the previous 13 renewals to construct my trends and analysis.

Lets get started then…

3.25  MARKET RASEN – BETFRED SUMMER PLATE HANDICAP CHASE (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)

NTF Extended Trends Analysis

1              13/13 had a top 2 finish in 1 of their last 3 starts

2              12/13 had no more than 2 previous chase hcp wins

3              12/13 had an OR of 135 and below

4              12/13 were aged between 6 & 10

5              11/13 finished in the top 2 last time out (9 won)

6              11/13 had no more than 4 chase wins

7              11/13 had previously won a chase at cl3 level or better

8              10/13 had 11 or fewer chase starts

9              9/13 ran within last 60 days

10           9/13 carried 10-13 or less to victory

11           8/13 were either a novice or a 2nd season chaser

…and this is how it looks when we apply it to today’s contestants –

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Tot

Tiger O’Toole

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

11/11

Al Co

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

11/11

Stonethrower

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

11/11

That’ll Do

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

10/11

Lucky Landing

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

10/11

Spock

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

10/11

Eastlake

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

10/11

Mostly Bob

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

9/11

Rockiteer

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

9/11

Benbane Head

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

8/11

Idarah

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

N

Y

N

7/11

Pilgrims Lane

Y

N

Y

Y

N

N

Y

N

Y

Y

N

6/11

I Have Dreamed

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

N

N

Y

Y

N

6/11

Qulinton

N

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

N

N

5/11

Auroras Encore

Y

N

N

Y

N

N

Y

N

Y

N

N

4/11

Zitenka

Y

N

N

Y

N

N

Y

N

Y

N

N

4/11

This approach throws up 3 strong trends qualifiers in TIGER O’TOOLE, AL CO & STONETHROWER as well as 4 that only fail on one of the trends in THAT’LL DO, LUCKY LANDING, SPOCK & EASTLAKE.

Slightly more than I would have hoped for but these are the 7 that will make up our shortlist for the race.

 

NTF Dosage Trends Analysis

DP          11/13 had 8 points or more in their DP

DI            9/11 had a DI of 1.50 or below

                7/11 had a DI of 0.86 or below

CD          9/11 had a CD of 0.40 or below

                7/11 had a CD of 0.00 or below

As I mentioned earlier this is not the strongest Dosage race (by any stretch) on the National Hunt calendar but here are Dosage figures for our shortlist –

Tiger O’toole                      4-0-6-6-0              /              16           0.78        0.13

Al Co                                      0-0-4-0-0              /              4              1.00        0.00

Stonethrower                   4-0-14-4-0           20+         22           1.00        0.18

That’ll Do                             2-2-11-5-0           20+         20           0.90        0.05

Lucky Landing                    3-0-10-5-0           /              18           0.80        0.06

Spock                                    5-2-6-3-0              /              16           1.67        0.56

Eastlake                               1-0-12-1-0           /              14           1.00        0.07

Not really a great many pointers there…

 

NTF Pace Map

The NTF Pace maps will give you an indication of how the race is likely to be run.

The running styles of the previous 13 winners of this race has been – FR = 3 | CP = 6 | HU = 4 – This then gives me the colour coding for the Pace Map above.

For today’s race I would be expecting one or all of IDARAH, STONETHROWER or ROCKITEER to go from the front and set the pace.

There looks to be a large chunk of the field that will be sitting close to the pace.

QULINTON, TIGER O’TOOLE, MOSTLY BOB and I HAVE DREAMED are all likely to be out the back and sitting tight before making their challenges.

 

NTF Shortlist – Notable Trends

TIGER O’TOOLE

Record on Good – 9-3-3-4-3-1-6-0-1-P

Paul Moloney record on horse – 7/21 | 33% S/R

Record in fields of 15+ – 6-6-9-0-P

AL CO

Record on Good – 4-0-0-4-0

Dougie Costello record on horse – 1-1-1-1

Record in fields of 15+ – 4-P-1-0-0

STONETHROWER

Record on Good – 3-U-2

Record at distances of 2m5f – 2m7f – 4-U-2-5-1-2-4-1

Richard Johnson record on horse – 2-3

Record in fields of 15+ – 7-8-4-3-U

THAT’LL DO

Record on Good – 2-1-3-2-F-2

Harry Derham record on horse – 1-2

Record in fields of 15+ – 0-F-2

Record at distances of 2m5f – 2m7f – 5-1-0-1

LUCKY LANDING

Record on Good – 2-U-5-1-5-2

Record at track – P-1-4-2-3

SPOCK

Record on Good – 7-6-1-5-1-R-1

Daryl Jacob record on horse – 1-0-1-2-2-1

Record Right-Handed – 7-6-6-5-2 compared to record Left-Handed – 1-1-0-1-2-1

EASTLAKE

Record on Good – 1-2-8-1-2

A P McCoy record on horse – 1-4-1-2-1-1-2

Record in fields of 15+ – 1-8-0

 

NTF Market Rasen Summer Plate Summary

Time to whittle down the shortlist.

SPOCK is the first I’m happy to drop from the list. His record going right-handed compared to left-handed would be a worry for myself and even if he did manage to pull it together today and win going this way round it’s not something I would lose much sleep over. He is also the only 1 on the shortlist to have Dosage negatives against him.

STONETHROWER holds solid credentials but there is a chance he may get into a duel for the lead which would compromise his chances. He has also only won in fields of 7 or less so I’m happy to swerve him today.

LUCKY LANDING doesn’t convince me in the jumping stakes and he also doesn’t strike me as being well handicapped of his current mark. He is another I’m happy to swerve.

TIGER O’TOOLE is not one I pass over lightly but I have a small concern over him in a large field and also over this 2m6f trip. He doesn’t strike me as one that will completely relish the extra distance and his form figures when stepping out beyond 2m4f read 0-P; he is reluctantly passed over today.

That leaves us with 3 – AL CO, THAT’LL DO & EASTLAKE – all 3 I could give chances to.

NTF Selection – Regular readers of this Blog will already be familiar with AL CO (P Bowen) and hopefully will have backed him on his last 2 runs. I commented way back on March the 5th that Bowen could have a potentially very well handicapped chaser on his hands and that fact remains; he is only 2lbs higher than his hurdle mark and could well still have improvement in him yet. Dougie Costello has an outstanding 4 from 4 record on the horse and despite having never won on officially ‘Good’ ground he has won on faster AND softer so the underfoot conditions don’t concern me. Bowen loves targeting this race (4 winners in the past 10 renewals) and it has been in my thoughts that this race has been the long term plan/plot for AL CO. He looks likely to start as favourite but he can justify those odds and land the 3 timer.

THAT’LL DO, who will love the ground and the trip, and EASTLAKE, who has an excellent relationship with A P McCoy, can fill the places behind Peter Bowen’s runner.

 

ps. If you want to learn more about the Dosage Angle then simply sign up to the FREE NTF list by popping your name and email in the box at the top right of the Blog. You will be then be sent a link to download an array of FREE NTF guides including my ‘Intro to Dosage’ guide.

 

Happy Summer Punting

Ben (NTF)