NTF Race Trends: 2019 Munster National Analysis…
Honestly, I find the Munster National one of the toughest buggers on the jumping calendar to nail!
Like it’s Kerry National partner in crime from last month, it’s again one of those early season races that isn’t quite ‘strong’ enough to add to the full NTF subscription service but does serve it’s own purpose for me in that I can use it to get my eye in for the season ahead.
I’m just about to open the doors to the full NTF service to members of the free list next week, so it never hurts to get in a few more ‘practice swings’ to get my jumping eye fully back in focus, the start-to-middle of October is often a tricky wee period on the jumping front. Well I say ‘practice swings’ but I’m very much playing for real, there won’t be no paper trading here, those days are long gone.
Munster National I WILL nail you one of the damn days!!
Lets get stuck into the analysis and see if we can tame the elusive beast that is the Munster National…
Download the full Munster National Analysis on the below link…
>>NTF Munster Analysis Guide<<
As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.
If, however, you just want to see what I’m backing my own personal selections are below…
Munster National Summary
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Shortlist…
SNUGSBOROUGH BENNY – 11/12
DRUMCLIFF – 11/12
INTERNAL TRANSFER – 11/12
MOVEWITHTHETIMES – 11/12
Conclusion/Selection(s)
INTERNAL TRANSFER (E McNamara) – There’s plenty to like about the chances of this 8yo in this contest. He’s still seriously unexposed over fences after only 3 starts (form of 1-1-4), he has strong form on Yielding to Soft & softer (3-1-2-2-1) and he’s an unbeaten 3 from 3 at the track (including two over the fences). It’s also worth pointing out the form of his trainer Eric McNamara at Limerick under the following conditions…Handicap Hurdles & Chases | 5yo-9yo’s | SP 14-1 or less…where his runners return…22/87 | 25% S/R | +£94.64 BFLSP – W&P 41/87 | 47% S/R – 76% above expectation. The horse comes into this off the back of a decent 4th in the Kerry National (where he may well have needed the outing after 153 days off the track) and there’s a good chance he can improve on that effort back at his favourite track.
DRUMCLIFF (A Howard) – It’s worth having a dart at this one as I suspect OR 137 is a winnable mark for him (has won off 139 but had a 7lb claimer on that day). I also think he may just prefer going right-handed as he’s 3/10, 2p on RH tracks compared to 1/7, 1p on LH tracks. His record over fences when racing from OR 139 or below is 111P and although he’s disappointed on his last 2 starts, he may have just needed those runs to sharpen him up after a 374-day absence. He’s worth a dart at lofty prices.
Thoughts on other shortlisters…
I get, to a certain extent, why SNUGSBOROUGH BENNY is near the head of the market but his form on ground with plenty cut would concern me…804065376 (0/9, 1p) on Soft or softer.
MOVEWITHTHETIMES I just struggle to have in races of this calibre, given he is 0/11, 1p in races worth more than 8k to the winner (he’s 4/4 in races worth 8k or less). He may prove me wrong one day, but I won’t lose any sleep over it…
This is likely to be the last piece of free race analysis on the blog for a while as this side of NTF will be moving to the full members service for the remainder of the season.
You can join the full NTF Members service shortly and to make sure you don’t miss out on the best sign-up option, you need to get yourself on the NTF Free list…
>>>Join the NTF Free list for free racing guides and full membership discounts
Best of luck if you are getting involved in the Munster National.
Ben (NTF)
Not really looked at your work before but this is as thorough as you can get when analysing a race. We all know how difficult these Graded Handicap Chases in Ireland are to study so any help like this is of enormous value. I have no views on the race myself so will be watching the outcome with great interest and of course if your in depth analysis shows it has got close to the solution I wont hesitate in joining your invaluable service in the future, Many thanks
Thanks Robert, much appreciated.
These graded handicaps in Ireland are indeed tricky races to get stuck into. The analysis will fall wide a fair few times (in these types of races) but when it does land one it’s often at a juicy price, which more than makes up for the ones you miss.
Hopefully something sticks in this one today…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
The 4.35 at Limerick was won by R17 the horse was never priced up as a runner ran out of the handicap.What a disgraceful way to fleece the punters.I shall never again get robbed in this way as I shall not gamble on Irish racing again.they should refund punters to restore integrity.Daylight robbery.
I do not bet on any Irish races for that reason.
I do not even place a bet on any of the handful of straight races in the year.
Such a shame as there is so much potential especially given that Ireland is a horse loving country and has some world class facilities. However, as we all know, money and power corrupt.
Hi Dave & RJ
I agree with you, to a certain extent, on the reserve situation.
I think it has potential but at the minute I don’t think it works, certainly not in favour of the punter, and without punters the sport will die a death, there needs to be a balance.
Have reserves for big races with 48 hour decs but the cut-off point for a reserve getting in should be 24 hours before the race or up to 6pm-8pm the night before a race. The best time can be worked out, you could even stretch it to 8am the morning of the race at a push, although evening before would be preferable.
The majority of punters can’t sit at home all day waiting to see if a reserve does or doesn’t get in the contest.
For example you look at the race the night before and then morning of the race but then, again for example, you have to go out to work or take the family out, you place your bets on the field that are, at that point, declared.
You come back in at 5pm, check the results, and a horse that wasn’t even running at 9 in the morning has won the race! That’s only going to serve to infuriate people!
It’s almost worse when said horse front-runs and changes the complexion of the race…
I think there is value in the reserve system but it needs modified, probably quite a bit. All parties that make up the horseracing community need to be factored in, And yes, that does mean us punters!
Appreciate your comments guys
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Afternoon Ben – I thought Imperial Aura ran a cracker on Saturday. Those 3 leaders went off like bats out of hell and he was sort of left in no man’s land between those 3 and the rest of the field and considering the pace and being first time out he was bang there at the business end. I think there’s a 2m4f handicap hurdle at the Showcase meeting in a couple of weeks that would suit him.
Afternoon Clive
I agree, given how the race panned out I also though he ran an excellent race. The two that finished in front of him were held-up out the back and picked up the pieces late on so he possibly did the best he could given the nature of the race.
Think the plan is to go chasing but I could see the temptation for one more crack at a decent hurdle pot with his mark still in tact…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Hi Ben,
Agree wholeheartedly with your comments on reserves here in Ireland.It has been abused in the ‘big’ handicaps down through the years by the ‘big’boys-Mullins,Elliott,McManus etc.I spoke to a member of the winning syndicate( a senior lady) that evening and she was advised that Cabaret Queen was unlikely to get a run and she shouldn’t bother to travel from Dublin to Limerick !Not the first time she was sold a lemon but the authorities are to blame for this mess !
Hi Ray
Yes, system certainly been abused by the big boys at times in the past!
Modify it and you have a good system, simple as that.
Your example of the lady from the Cabaret Queen syndicate is a prime example of how everyone connected (owners, trainers, punters…) needs to be looked after. Yes your horse could be declared and then pulled an hour before the race due to unforseen circumstances but to have it the opposite way (told it’s unlikely to run to only find it slips in through the back door) is far worse, a real kicker for people who stump up the money (and it isn’t cheap) to have these horses in training.
Needs a better system, and it won’t take much to make the current system a much better model…
Cheers – Ben (NTF)