London Gold Cup Handicap – Trends Analysis

There’s Group 1 action today at Newbury in the shape of the Lockinge Stakes but it’s another race on the card that I want to take a look at here on the free blog; The London Gold Cup Handicap (3.00pm).

3yo handicaps are not always the easiest to dig into from a trends front in the early part of the season but this particular race has some strong angles to plough into with so lets crack on and see where we end up…

London Gold Cup Trends (3.00 Newbury) – 11 runners

Let’s start with the following three trends…

12/12 OR 95-82

12/12 Won 1 of last 3

12/12 2-6 career starts

Which leaves the following…

Dukhan

Loyal Promise

Chief Ironside

He’s Amazing

Mekong

Glencadam Master

Master Of Wine

Still a bit of trimming to do so lets add in…

12/12 were IRE, GB or USA bred

12/12 last start on turf over 7f-1m2f

That whittles it down a bit further to…

Dukhan

Loyal Promise

He’s Amazing

Mekong

Glencadam Master

I also want to add in the following…

12/12 won at least at C5 level but not above C3 level

11/12 top 3 finish LTO

Which leaves a final shortlist of…

DUKHAN (H Palmer)

LOYAL PROMISE (M Meade)

HE’S AMAZING (C Cox)

MEKONG (Sir M Stoute)

Despite HE’S AMAZING having run well enough in three previous starts at Newbury I am slightly put-off by trainer Clive Cox’s recent record at the track – 2/66 | 3% S/R – so I’ll tentatively drop him from my thinking at this stage as well.

Which leaves three…

DUKHAN (H Palmer)

LOYAL PROMISE (M Meade)

MEKONG (Sir M Stoute)

Conclusion…

The first time headgear on DUKHAN looks interesting as he’s clearly a talented animal but is just not quite settling in his races at present. With that in mind his last two starts (where he has been running free in the early stages) have been notable efforts and if the first time cheek-pieces do the trick and help him settle in the early part of this contest then he could seriously out-run his mark here. He actually still holds a Derby entry at present and although I suspect it’s highly unlikely he takes up that engagement it’s an indicator of the type of horse they though they had on their hands. The Palmer yard are in fine form (7/27 | 26% S/R last 14 days) and Frankie is riding well at present (7/28 | 25% S/R last 14 days) and with double figures on offer about this one I’m happy to have a dabble.

MEKONG is the other I want to have on side as Stoute does aim one at this race and his record in this contest since 1997 reads… 212273361213 (3/12, 7 places – only 2 runners failing to place). It’s also worth noting that Stoute’s record with 3yo handicap debutantes in May, with those having only 2-4 previous career starts, is an eye-catching 12/46 | 26% S/R | +£20.63 LSP – W&P 21/40 | 46% S/R. Mekong fits that angle and he definitely looks a horse with plenty more to give.

Best of luck if you are getting involved and if you are after my Lockinge Stakes analysis then you can get that in the NTF Members Area.

Ben (NTF)

By the way if you are reading this and going to Newbury today and also thinking about getting into a fight whilst there…then just don’t! Life’s too bloody short. Enjoy the day without ruining it for everyone else…